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UK Election 2019: The People Have Spoken & Brexit It Will Be!

by John Brian Shannon

It was an historic night in the UK where a formerly weak Conservative government led by Prime Minister Boris Johnson swept to power in a massive majority.

Every party in the United Kingdom has lost ground to the Conservatives — except for the Scottish National Party (SNP) which won 48-seats giving them a grand total of 4% of the UK vote — but that pales in comparison to Boris Johnson’s Conservative and Unionist Party’s 45% of the votes cast in the UK Election 2019. The Brexit Party (a brand-new party only weeks old) gained 2% of the vote, but didn’t win any seats.

Here are the percentage of votes cast in the UK General Election 2019

Conservatives = 45%
Labour = 33%
Liberal Democrats = 12%
SNP = 4%
Green = 3%
Brexit = 2%
Other = 1%

Which translates into this many seats by party affiliation

Conservatives = 365
Labour = 203
SNP = 48
Liberal Democrats = 11
DUP = 8
Sinn Fein = 7
Plaid Cymru = 4
SDLP = 2
APNI = 1
Green = 1
Brexit = 0
UUP = 0
IND = 0


Winners and Losers in the UK General Election 2019

WINNERS

UK VOTERS: The biggest winners in this election are UK voters, as every person who wanted to vote was able to vote, unlike in some countries where armed thugs try to prevent people from voting unless they’re voting for the ‘approved’ thug party. Further, a situation no longer exists where a paralyzed UK House of Commons is unable to do the work of the UK people. Following this clear election result, the UK government can now move smartly to get The People’s business done. And Number One on that list is Brexit.

LOSERS

REMAIN VOTERS: The biggest losers in UK General Election 2019 are so-called ‘Remain’ voters — those who wanted to ignore or overturn the democratic result of the 2016 EU referendum. The UK people spoke clearly in the 2016 referendum, in the UK General Election 2017, and now in the UK General Election 2019, with thousands of traditional Labour, Liberal Democrat and even SNP voters changing their traditional voting patterns (this time) to empower the leave-supporting Conservative and Unionist Party, and some people casting votes for the new-ish Brexit Party to reward their ongoing commitment for leaving the European Union.

WINNERS

THE BREXIT PARTY: Brexit Party members and their leaders should be leaping for joy, because, although they didn’t elect one MP to the UK House of Commons, they’ve dramatically changed the political landscape in the United Kingdom by capturing hundreds of thousands of votes from traditional Labour voters who disagreed with Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s Remain Brexit position, and from other Remain-supporting parties across the UK. Strange as it may seem, the Brexit Party like the UKIP Party before it have influenced the UK and continental Europe for generations to come. I’m not sure that Brexit Party candidates and supporters have realized this profound point just yet… But in the meantime, ‘Hats Off’ to Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage and his Brexit Party!

LOSERS

FORMER LIBERAL DEMOCRAT LEADER JO SWINSON: Jo Swinson lost her Dumbarton seat and (thereby) her position as Lib Dem leader — and for no other reason than she cut across the popular mood of the country which was and still is to leave the EU. A polished, responsible, and committed member of Parliament, her defeat can only be seen as a loss for the Lib Dems and the House of Commons in general. But when you’re the leader of a major political party, you must be able to read the mood of the people in a democratic system, otherwise you’re soon gone.

WINNERS

THE EU: Because for the first time, the European Union now has a reliable partner across the English Channel with which to negotiate Brexit and a follow-on trade deal with the UK. Unfortunately, in the former ‘hung parliament’ situation it was very much a case of ‘mixed-messages’ coming from the UK House of Commons over the past 3-years.

LOSERS

THE UK LABOUR PARTY: As votes are still being counted, it looks like the Labour Party has lost 59-seats, but only because they supported ‘Remain’ instead of properly reading the mood of voters (who, with increasing resolve week-by-week) wanted to ‘just get Brexit done’ and get-on with whatever paradigm that will exist post-Brexit. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is a principled, hard-working, and committed MP and the long-serving leader of HM official opposition. Again, being able to read the mood of the public and represent their preferences is a prerequisite for the leader of a major political party. Having retained his own seat, I hope Mr. Corbyn will continue as leader of the Labour Party until an appropriate time can be found for a proper leadership contest within the Labour Party.

WINNERS

EACH MP WHO WON A SEAT IN THE UK GENERAL ELECTION 2019: Congratulations to each and every MP who won or retained their seat in the UK House of Commons. These are the people who will act on the valid and important concerns of UK citizens, such as Brexit, the NHS, the environment, industry, social care, transportation and international trade. And so much more.

Finally, a big Thank You! to the UK journalists who stayed-up all night to cover the most important UK election in decades, doing so with style, grace, and neutrality. Well Done!

The Benefits of a Hard Brexit

by John Brian Shannon

“Name five benefits of a Hard Brexit” someone asked recently, which conveniently forms the basis of a useful discussion. So then, let’s have it:

  1. The UK instantly saves £39 billion pounds.
  2. The UK will no longer need to pay a (net) £9 billion per year to the EU.
  3. The Northern Ireland border will resolve itself. Which means, ‘It’s on them.’
  4. The UK will leave fiascos like the Salzburg meeting and Brussels debacles behind.
  5. The UK can sign as many free trade deals as it wants following the official Brexit date.

There are plenty more benefits but in case some feel that’s an overstatement, let’s post five more:

  1. Billions of dollars, pounds, yen and rupees would flow to the UK due to newly signed trade deals.
  2. Rifts in the UK Conservative Party would heal and the party could again function as one political entity.
  3. A major Conservative promise (Brexit) kept — leading to a majority government at the next General Election.
  4. Cheaper foods and goods for UK consumers (due to the huge economies of scale of North American agriculture and marketplace)
  5. The EU would rightly be put in its place for trying to steal Northern Ireland from the UK using bureaucratic stealth.

Want five more? Easy!

  1. UK universities full and expanding due to higher enrollment from new free trade partner countries.
  2. UK tourism operators experience record year-after-year numbers as new trading partners boost UK tourism.
  3. UK exporters export unprecedented amounts of goods around the world due to new trade opportunities post-Brexit.
  4. UK hospitals earn billions in foreign income as patients from new trade partner countries travel to the UK for treatment.
  5. UK increases engagement with Commonwealth of Nations countries and dedicates its entire foreign aid budget to Commonwealth countries only, which ‘keeps the money in the family’ so to speak.

The UK is Missing Out Because Theresa May Wants a Polite Brexit

But it appears that for all her efforts she is getting nowhere with the EU.

It’s a waste of time to try reasoning with people who don’t want a solution — and the EU doesn’t want a solution because it doesn’t want lose the UK (the EU’s cash-cow) which is the 2nd-largest contributor to the EU budget.

That’s it in a nutshell, folks! Nothing more, nothing less.

Therefore, the EU tries to bully the British people into giving up the idea of Brexit and it resorts to various plots to try to suspend Brexit like trying to rally weak-willed Britons to support a 2nd referendum (and the EU used that ploy successfully to browbeat the Irish into joining the union in a 2nd referendum attempt) and employs other games and media influencers to further their BRINO Brexit dreams.

And why wouldn’t they try that option? When you’re the spendthrift EU and you’re facing a (net) loss of £9 billion funding per year anything is worth a try.

Still, future relations must count for something. Let’s hope EU leaders eventually see the value of preserving a long-term relationship with the saviour of Europe (twice since 1914) and a major purchaser of EU goods in the present-day.

But if not, let us be on our way…

Brexit Committee says ‘Not Enough Time to Execute Brexit’ by Target Date

by John Brian Shannon

“The Brexit Committee has warned that even under the most optimistic scenario, there may not be enough time to complete all necessary work before the UK is scheduled to leave the EU. The Brexit Committee report also calls for an extension to the exit timetable if a deal has not been finalised.”The Express


What *Have* They Been Doing?

Two years on from the June 2016 Brexit referendum and with almost one more year to go before the stated target date of March 29, 2019 and the Brexit Committee says that “even under the most optimistic scenario, there may not be enough time to complete all the necessary work before the UK is scheduled to leave the EU.”

That’s the definition of ‘Low Ambition‘ right there.

Whether the fault lies in Brussels or at 10 Downing, or even because of the infighting that happens within the Conservative Party itself, governments need to remember that the people have spoken (and quite apart from that) sentiment continues to grow among the UK voting public for the government to ‘just get on with it’.

Even people who voted Remain now think the best thing for the country is for a quick and streamlined Brexit agreement — one that is fair to citizens and industry on both sides of the English Channel.

If two years and nine months isn’t enough time to get it done, what is?

Do the politicians in London and Brussels think they have carte blanche to spend the rest of the decade and part of the next to arrange a suitable Brexit deal? If so, that’s very telling… and not in a good way.

Citizens on both sides of Brexit need to know and industry needs to know what to expect so they can prepare for life after Brexit. And they needed to know a year ago.


How Hard Can it Be?

Most of the existing EU laws will simply continue unchanged following Brexit, therefore, more will stay the same than will change.


FISHERIES

It was originally thought that the UK would be leaving The Common Fisheries Agreement by March 29, 2019, or at the latest, by July 2019.

Therefore the UK had been negotiating with the EU in good faith so they could make some basic decisions about how to manage UK fisheries after Brexit. Micheal Gove is surely an able enough minister to easily handle it, yet, the EU indicated that the Common Fisheries Agreement will remain in place until 2020 and there will be no negotiation about it. And that was the end of that.

Read this important article about UK fisheries policy between March 29, 2019 and January 1, 2021: Brexit: Michael Gove shares fishing industry ‘disappointment’

Actually, the EU might’ve done the UK a favour by sidelining fisheries policy until after Brexit. Imagine that!

As off-putting as that sounds, it dramatically lightens the load of UK government negotiators because it’s one less sector that needs to be debated with EU negotiating teams. All of which should have conspired to put both the UK and EU six months *ahead* of schedule on the Brexit negotiation timeline!

So we can’t blame Brexit delays on Micheal Gove, the Common Fisheries agreement, or the EU for delays to that timeline.


DEFENCE

Both the UK and EU will remain members of NATO post-Brexit and as the UK already operates its own defence infrastructure there isn’t much change expected there.

Apart from arranging the return of any non-NATO-dedicated Royal Air Force jets presently in EU countries, or removing Royal Navy ships from EU waters (unless there by invitation of an EU country or while taking part in a NATO exercise) there isn’t much for Gavin Williamson the Secretary of State for Defence of the United Kingdom to handle for this part of Brexit. A few phone calls before the Brexit date should cover it.

So we can’t blame the lack of progress on Gavin Williamson or his EU defence counterparts for agreements not reached in time for Brexit.


CUSTOMS and SINGLE MARKET

Thus far, the EU seemed to be in denial that the UK was actually leaving the bloc, so quite logically from their point of view; Why would they want to entertain UK negotiations allowing the UK to leave the customs agreement and the EU’s single market architectures?

But now that the UK Parliament have voted in favour of the EU Withdrawal Bill you’d think the EU would accept the UK is leaving the bloc and that it is time to begin crafting an agreement setting the dates and terms to allow Britain to leave both the Customs Union and the Single Market.

But since the Withdrawal Bill passed last week, some in the EU suddenly began saying that negotiations with the UK can’t continue because the UK’s ruling Conservative party is ‘deeply divided’ and that ‘the EU can’t be certain who it is dealing with’ — yet, the UK government easily passed the EU Withdrawal Bill which it said it would do all along.

Full marks here to Prime Minister Theresa May for shepherding this bill through and making it look easy. Brilliant!

Read this important article about: How MP’s voted on the EU withdrawal bill amendments

Until the Withdrawal Bill was signed into law, any Brexit timeline delays were the fault of UK Conservative Party MP’s and the EU bore no particular blame for its lack of enthusiasm regarding the furtherance of Brexit negotiations.

However, now that the bill has been made into law, negotiations must begin in earnest.


FREE TRADE BETWEEN THE UK and THE EU POST-BREXIT

Almost everything that applies to the delays in the customs and single market negotiations (see above) applies here too.

To reiterate: Until the Withdrawal Bill was signed into UK law, delays to the negotiation timeline are to be blamed on the UK side and not on the EU side for the simple reason that until the UK side got serious about Brexit, why would the EU get serious about it?

Fortunately, and better late than never, PM Theresa May got the job done and now things must advance in the interests of industry and citizens on both sides of the Channel.

Not that the UK can suddenly afford to make Brexit ‘the EU’s emergency’ as the UK pursued the Withdrawal Bill in a most leisurely fashion over the past 32 months.

“A lack of planning on your part doesn’t necessarily constitute an emergency on my part.”

Yet because trading arrangements will benefit business on both sides of the Channel things must now move smartly along or delays will hurt business on both sides.

I wouldn’t want to be the German Chancellor or the British Prime Minister (for example) who failed to get a trade agreement ready in time for Brexit, or the leader who failed to make the necessary modifications to their respective departments to allow trade to continue uninterrupted.


IMMIGRATION and FREE MOVEMENT

It looks like this is a non-negotiable for the UK government. Too many British citizens spoke too loudly and too clearly for any UK Prime Minister to dare overrule their wishes.

Each EU citizen wishing to remain in the UK after Brexit will pay a nominal annual fee (about the price of a passport) and will be required to provide an up-to-date address and telephone number for the Home Office. Simple enough.

EU citizens wanting to move to the UK after Brexit will face the same requirements as EU citizens who’ve elected to stay on in Britain.

Non-EU citizens can probably expect about the same, although emigrating to the UK *after* Brexit will be much easier if you’re an EU citizen or Commonwealth citizen.


Now that the EU Withdrawal Bill Has Finally Passed It’s Time to Lift Those Anchors!

For industry, change is always negative but still doable. But late changes are lethal to business on both sides.

And UK leaders and EU27 leaders must remember that!

Industry needs clear and timely regulations (with a long lead time) that must rank higher than the ideological differences between the heads of European states (including the UK) higher than the (occasional) personality conflicts between politicians, and must always rank above the partisan politics within a country.

From the day the Withdrawal Bill was finally signed into law, every day must now count, be counted, and be accountable — or the UK and the EU27 will be racing with ‘their anchors still in the water’ against every other ‘ship of state’ in the world.

And that’s not how you win races, whether nautical or economic.