Home » Economic Uncertainty
Category Archives: Economic Uncertainty
Why Global Markets Will Recover from Coronavirus Sooner, Rather Than Later
Every previous depression, recession, or one day sell-off has been caused by things like over-valued stocks, improper economic or financial policy, weak banking regulations, or some other economic, financial, or legal reason — therefore, those financial crashes were caused by an organization, a regulator, or a person, doing the wrong thing.
Consequently, the corrective action and the time lag involved to get the market up to where it once was, involved many months, or even years of tough slogging.
But in this case, nobody did anything wrong; There was no over-valuation, no wrong-headed government policy or weak banking regulatory environment, nor were there illegal actions by individuals behind the cause of this particular market adjustment. No matter the numbers… there’s only one reason for this massive and unprecedented market value writedown, and that is fear.
Fear of investors losing the value of their stocks (due to the Coronavirus scare) is the only thing that’s caused this financial meltdown — therefore, once that fear subsides at approximately the same speed as the Coronavirus subsides, the market should then respond very strongly and March 2020 will eventually register as a tiny blip on the year, and my guess is that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will return to 29,000 points or more by the end of 2020.
As no systemic economic, financial sector or banking regulatory problems are to blame for this particular crisis, global stock markets should rebound as soon as the Coronavirus has run its course.
Waiting for the Markets to Open on Monday With All the Money You Pulled Out of the Markets Before They Lost Value During the Coronavirus Scare? Nice!
Well, aren’t you sitting pretty! 😉
If you pulled all your money out two weeks ago, or even as late as week ago, you now have a pool of money that you’ve already made profit on, ready to reinvest in the market just at the time stocks are priced at fire-sale prices!
Oh, yes. Oh, yes, Oh, yes! You are a lucky investor indeed.
And I suspect that there are millions of such investors around the world at this time and I fully expect that once the Coronavirus has run its course through the population, investor confidence will return like a hurricane on steroids.
Think of all that investment hitting the markets over the next few weeks. ‘It’s a beautiful thing!’ as Donald Trump would say.
‘Buy Low, Sell High’
If I’m right (and we’ll soon see) it will demonstrate the perfect example of the ‘Buy Low & Sell High’ strategy that’s been making individual investors and institutional investors wealthy since there were rocks.
If you did wisely ‘cash out’ your stocks over the past two weeks, you can now buy even more of your favourite stocks at their new, low price due to the Coronavirus market event and watch them return to February’s highs and more in the coming months and years.
If millions of investors do this as I fully expect they will; March and April of this year should barely register as a blip on the financial calendar in only a few short months, and investors will reap significant rewards over the coming months and years. And, good on you for being such prudent investors!
Until then, wash your hands often, maintain proper social distancing of about six feet, and don’t go on a cruise ship if you’re aged or infirm. Other than that, happy days for investors will soon return!
Ditherers! You’ve Had Your Chance at Brexit: Now Shove-Off, It’s Boris’ Turn!
What is wrong with some people in the UK Parliament?
I’ll tell you what’s wrong; They had their chance and they duffed-it-up beyond all fixing and it took them 3-years to accomplish nothing… other than cost the UK economy £1 billion per month (totalling £38 billion since June 23, 2016) due to economic uncertainty.
To add insult to injury, over that same 3-years the UK continued to pay a £10.5 billion (average) annual net payment to the EU, for a total of £69.5 billion (so far) due to the prolonged Brexit negotiating period. A ‘negotiation’ that in the end, failed spectacularly.
And now they see Boris is going to get the job done in short order — which they imagine will have the effect of making their efforts look pathetic by comparison.
In Short; These People are Poor Losers!
And worse, they won’t allow the new team to get the job done, thereby outing themselves for the ditherers they are. (Fun Fact: The Free Dictionary cites former UK Prime Minister Theresa May 4 out of 10 times in the ‘References’ section under the word ‘ditherer’)
Remoaners… You’ve Already Had Your Chance! So Get Out of the Way and Let Boris Have His Chance!
After 3-years of trying to gain a Brexit deal these people failed to pass the Withdrawal Agreement three times in a row when they were leading the government.
The Conservative Party ‘called time’ on their efforts, because for all the bouncing around the EU and cravenly sucking-up to all and sundry, they accomplished nothing on the Brexit file. Not one thing.
It’s like the proverbial 7-year-olds who tried to play against an adult rugby team; ‘You were getting hammered by your opponents, let alone being unable to keep up with your own team members, and team management pulled your sorry behinds off the field so you wouldn’t embarrass yourselves to the point you’d get booed every time you walked onto a rugby pitch for the rest of your lives.’
In the case of the ‘Remoaner’ Brexit team, getting ‘benched’ by ‘management’ was a mercy! Do these people not get it?
Please View This Chart if You’re a UK Taxpayer & Are Concerned About the Size of the Net Contributions to Brussels (plus the Economic Uncertainty Losses Over the Past 3-Years) All of Which Total £69.5 Billion, so far…
Remember, a ‘net’ payment is the money you don’t get back. It’s a net payment. Get it?
So, Who Really, is Working for the UK taxpayer?
- On the one hand, there are those who created this entire mess by dragging Brexit out over 3-years and want the government to double-down on the failed tactics of the Remoaner Brexit team and want the new Prime Minister to tell Britons they must continue to pay insane amounts of money to the EU annually and accept economic uncertainty as a permanent state of affairs in the UK. Meanwhile, the EU continues to say there is absolutely no chance of a change in their Brexit position. So, why work for more delay? What’s to be gained by another missed Brexit deadline? What do you hope to accomplish over 3-more months that you couldn’t accomplish over 3-years? Why are you attempting to play the ball when you’ve been ordered off the field by your own management?
- On the other hand, there are those who want to stop the economic haemorrhaging by November 1, 2019 by getting Brexit done and dusted, working diligently and under trying conditions for the country’s taxpayers so that Britons can move on with their lives in a better economy and with proper UK sovereignty restored.
So, who is working for the UK taxpayer? You tell me…
Related Article:
- Brexit showdown: Who were Tory rebels who defied Boris Johnson? (BBC)
Day 1040 of Theresa May’s premiership: No Brexit & British Steel needs millions to stay afloat
At Day 1040 of Theresa May’s premiership there’s still no Brexit; Two firm Brexit dates have been missed; UK Members of the European Parliament (MEP’s) are therefore required to run in the EU Parliament elections which will conclude on Sunday, May 26th; And The Brexit Party are running far ahead in the polls and seem to be gathering momentum as they go.
Conservative and Labour politicians are in full-on panic mode as The Brexit Party advances daily in the polls with 34% support, Labour fell to 21% and the Conservatives are down to 11% support among UK voters. That’s barely double-digit support there Conservatives! By the weekend Conservatives may well have fallen to single-digits in the polls.
Polls are polls of course, and are irrelevant most of the time; However, with the EU Parliament elections only days away it behooves UK political parties to pay attention to such large swings in voter preference.
Fortunately for UK Conservatives, the upcoming election relates to European Parliament seats only and not UK House of Commons seats, otherwise, Conservative MP’s might be jumping out windows en masse. Yet in the absence of delivering a proper Brexit, that may still occur at the next General Election.
Imagine if the Conservatives fail to deliver a reasonable Brexit by 2021 and lose their majority in the House of Commons (and, such has occurred in Canada when the majority Progressive Conservative government lost every one of their seats across the country, except for two) and The Brexit Party won 350-seats, while Labour and the Liberal Democrats split the rest, and the Conservatives won only two seats!
‘You got what you deserved for not delivering Brexit,’ every UK voter would say after the Conservative Prime Minister emphatically promised Brexit more than 100-times. I believe that even Remainers would blame the Conservatives in this manner, should they fail to deliver a timely (too late for that!) and fair Brexit.
Here’s an excerpt from BBC describing Theresa May’s last ‘Hail Mary pass’ from deep in her own zone with little chance of a pass completion written all over it and barely any time left on the scoreboard.
“Theresa May has said MPs have “one last chance” to deliver Brexit, urging them to back what she called a “new deal”.
MPs will get a vote on whether to hold another referendum if they back the EU Withdrawal Agreement Bill, she said.
The bill also contains new guarantees on workers’ rights, environmental protections and the Northern Irish border, as well a customs “compromise”.
Labour said it was a “rehash” of existing plans and Tory Brexiteers took to social media to vent their anger.
Jacob Rees-Mogg said what was on offer was “worse than before”, while Boris Johnson said the proposals contravened the party’s 2017 general election manifesto, which ruled out the UK remaining in a customs union with the EU.
He tweeted: “We can and must do better and deliver what the people voted for.” — BBC
British Steel says 3-years of Economic Uncertainty have put it near the Brink
Three years of economic uncertainty due to the obscenely long Brexit negotiation process have created real hardship for British Steel.
First, they couldn’t pay their £100m EU carbon bill and were forced to borrow the money from the UK government, now they need £75m to continue operations or they may become insolvent, thereby putting thousands of people out of work.
That’s just the cost to one UK company as a result of the unnecessarily long Brexit negotiations. Expect more large UK companies to approach the government in the coming weeks and months to help them meet expenses after suffering losses in the millions of pounds due to the overly long Brexit negotiations.
BBC Business weighs in:
“The future of 5,000 British Steel workers remains uncertain as its owners continue to lobby for government backing.
The UK’s second-biggest steel maker had been trying to secure £75m in financial support to help it to address “Brexit-related issues”.
If the firm does not get the money it would put 5,000 jobs at risk and endanger 20,000 in the supply chain.”– BBC Business
It seems patently obvious that the overly extended Brexit period of economic uncertainty have cost UK businesses dearly, and that this is the beginning of more such requests. With the House of Commons paralysed by Brexit, it may take The Brexit Party stepping in to solve the self-made Brexit problem that UK Conservatives face.
Letter to Britain 