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French Election: A de facto Referendum on Frexit?

by John Brian Shannon

French voters heading to the polls on Sunday may notice that public opinion has been shifting in recent days towards Frexit. Even Emmanuel Macron the ‘establishment’ candidate hints that Frexit might be in the cards if the EU doesn’t reform.

Emmanuel Macron warns EU it must change or France will make swift Frexit (The Sun)

Marine Le Pen continues to gain in the polls and with only days to go before the vote, one wonders what would happen if the vote were a month on? Probably a Le Pen victory if the present trend continues.

Alas, the vote will be held on May 7, not June 7, but it shows how voter preferences are changing as each day passes.

Latest French Election Polls: Le Pen Gains on Macron (Newsweek)

Still, a threat to leave the EU coming from an establishment candidate for the French presidency is shocking, as was the violence on the streets of Paris, a.k.a. the City of Love.


Could a new French president influence the Brexit process?

If Marine Le Pen is elected, the EU will face two nations with plans to leave the Union — Britain and France.

On the other hand, if Emmanuel Macron is elected (and if the EU won’t agree to the changes requested by Macron) it seems likely Frexit will occur anyway.


Back to the effects of the French election on the UK;

In the case where the United Kingdom (alone) leaves the EU, all of the hurt, anger and blame felt by the jilted party (the EU Parliament) will be focused on UK voters and their political leaders.

But in the case where both Britain and France decide to leave the EU, the Union may have no choice but to accept that the democratic deficit in Brussels is to blame — and all of the hurt, anger and blame will be directed at Brussels by the EU bloc leaders.

And if that occurs, some necessary changes might actually occur. Although two of their best horses (Britain and France) will have already left the stable.

As traumatic as it might be, that’s what it might take for the un-democrats in Brussels to change their ways.


My view is that Emmanuel Macron will win the French presidency in the May 7th election, that the EU will not offer the changes necessary for France to remain in the Union, and that Marine Le Pen will win the 2022 election and take France out of the European Union shortly thereafter.

‘The one constant in the cosmos is change’

Let’s hope EU leaders realize the profound truth of that truism and decide to make the changes necessary for France to stay in the European Union. Otherwise, even bigger changes are coming for continental Europe. Mon Dieu! Quoi de neuf?