Home » Posts tagged 'economic uncertainty due to extended Brexit negotiations'
Tag Archives: economic uncertainty due to extended Brexit negotiations
At Day 1040 of Theresa May’s premiership there’s still no Brexit; Two firm Brexit dates have been missed; UK Members of the European Parliament (MEP’s) are therefore required to run in the EU Parliament elections which will conclude on Sunday, May 26th; And The Brexit Party are running far ahead in the polls and seem to be gathering momentum as they go.
Conservative and Labour politicians are in full-on panic mode as The Brexit Party advances daily in the polls with 34% support, Labour fell to 21% and the Conservatives are down to 11% support among UK voters. That’s barely double-digit support there Conservatives! By the weekend Conservatives may well have fallen to single-digits in the polls.
Polls are polls of course, and are irrelevant most of the time; However, with the EU Parliament elections only days away it behooves UK political parties to pay attention to such large swings in voter preference.
Fortunately for UK Conservatives, the upcoming election relates to European Parliament seats only and not UK House of Commons seats, otherwise, Conservative MP’s might be jumping out windows en masse. Yet in the absence of delivering a proper Brexit, that may still occur at the next General Election.
Imagine if the Conservatives fail to deliver a reasonable Brexit by 2021 and lose their majority in the House of Commons (and, such has occurred in Canada when the majority Progressive Conservative government lost every one of their seats across the country, except for two) and The Brexit Party won 350-seats, while Labour and the Liberal Democrats split the rest, and the Conservatives won only two seats!
‘You got what you deserved for not delivering Brexit,’ every UK voter would say after the Conservative Prime Minister emphatically promised Brexit more than 100-times. I believe that even Remainers would blame the Conservatives in this manner, should they fail to deliver a timely (too late for that!) and fair Brexit.
Here’s an excerpt from BBC describing Theresa May’s last ‘Hail Mary pass’ from deep in her own zone with little chance of a pass completion written all over it and barely any time left on the scoreboard.
“Theresa May has said MPs have “one last chance” to deliver Brexit, urging them to back what she called a “new deal”.
MPs will get a vote on whether to hold another referendum if they back the EU Withdrawal Agreement Bill, she said.
The bill also contains new guarantees on workers’ rights, environmental protections and the Northern Irish border, as well a customs “compromise”.
Labour said it was a “rehash” of existing plans and Tory Brexiteers took to social media to vent their anger.
Jacob Rees-Mogg said what was on offer was “worse than before”, while Boris Johnson said the proposals contravened the party’s 2017 general election manifesto, which ruled out the UK remaining in a customs union with the EU.
British Steel says 3-years of Economic Uncertainty have put it near the Brink
Three years of economic uncertainty due to the obscenely long Brexit negotiation process have created real hardship for British Steel.
First, they couldn’t pay their £100m EU carbon bill and were forced to borrow the money from the UK government, now they need £75m to continue operations or they may become insolvent, thereby putting thousands of people out of work.
That’s just the cost to one UK company as a result of the unnecessarily long Brexit negotiations. Expect more large UK companies to approach the government in the coming weeks and months to help them meet expenses after suffering losses in the millions of pounds due to the overly long Brexit negotiations.
BBC Business weighs in:
“The future of 5,000 British Steel workers remains uncertain as its owners continue to lobby for government backing.
The UK’s second-biggest steel maker had been trying to secure £75m in financial support to help it to address “Brexit-related issues”.
If the firm does not get the money it would put 5,000 jobs at risk and endanger 20,000 in the supply chain.”– BBC Business
It seems patently obvious that the overly extended Brexit period of economic uncertainty have cost UK businesses dearly, and that this is the beginning of more such requests. With the House of Commons paralysed by Brexit, it may take The Brexit Party stepping in to solve the self-made Brexit problem that UK Conservatives face.
Some things look pretty obvious in retrospect, don’t they?
After the Conservative and Unionist Party of the United Kingdom and Northern Ireland hired a known Remainer to be Prime Minister following the June 23, 2016 EU referendum, newly-installed PM Theresa May went about the UK and the world telling all who would listen, that she, Theresa May, HAD THE RIGHT STUFF to take the UK out of the European Union — only to fail to deliver Brexit 31-days short of the finish line on March 29, 2019, the official Brexit date.
This disappointing forecast is due to news reports coming in that Theresa May might wish to delay Brexit, although as little as one day ago she said there is no benefit in delaying Brexit as the same intractable problems would remain after the delay and still require solving — and that British MP’s should ‘Hold their nerve’.
Which seems quite logical, actually. If the UK and the EU couldn’t get a decent Withdrawal Agreement done in 2.5+ years, what makes them think they could get it done in 2.8+ years, for example? The same issues will need to be resolved then, as now.
We shouldn’t have been fooled. Largely unknown in British politics, Theresa May toiled away in obscurity as the Home Secretary for 6 quiet years. Indeed, Theresa May’s time in the Home Office has come to be known as the quietest time in Home Office history. But while waiting for the PM’s chair to come up, it’s wise, I suppose, to remain uncontroversial.
Why, oh why, did we choose an arch-Remainer to steer the UK through Brexit? (Yes, I used the royal “we” because many people voted for, or approved Theresa May as PM)
It’s Our Fault, of Course. Because We Hired the Wrong Prime Minister
Someone wanted to become Prime Minister and she told us exactly what we wanted to hear:
- “Brexit Means Brexit”
- “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal”
- “The UK Will Regain Control of its Money”
- “The UK Will Become The Great Meritocracy”
- “The UK Will No Longer be Subject to a Foreign Court”
- “The UK Will Regain the Right to Write its Own Trade Deals”
- “The UK Will Regain Control of its Borders and Immigration”
And so much more than that.
If you don’t believe me, every significant speech given by Theresa May since July 2016 is published elsewhere at this website and most of those speeches have an accompanying YouTube video so you can see her speak the words herself and read the transcript (provided by the UK government) and decide for yourself if she actually believed what she was saying at the time, or whether she just wanted to continue as Prime Minister long after she realized that she wasn’t up to the (Brexit part of the) job.
Had she given it up earlier, Michael Gove or Jacob Rees-Mogg could’ve jumped in to the PM”s job and gotten the UK a decent Brexit deal before the official Brexit date and Theresa May could’ve gone on to the House of Lords, or wherever she had hoped to go, and no one would’ve ever known she couldn’t deliver on her Brexit promises.
So, Either Theresa May Isn’t the Prime Minister She Thought She Was, or She Isn’t the Prime Minister We Thought She Was
Or, (he wrote hopefully) maybe this is a bargaining gambit to get the EU off balance — with them suddenly realizing they must now negotiate against a strong Brexiteer like Michael Gove instead of a weak Remainer like Theresa May — therefore, they might decide to take the opportunity now to quickly sign an amended Withdrawal Agreement before Ms. May is gone from politics forever.
“Oh Luvvie, we miss you already!” lamented every EU bureaucrat.
You Were So Close, Theresa, So Close.
Why did you lose your nerve? Especially after rallying the troops last week, telling them; “MP’s should not lose their nerve.”
We thought you were the one. We thought you were the one who could deliver Brexit. We cheered your every success and fumed against your opponents. We wrote blogs. We posted Tweets and happily re-Tweeted your best Tweets. We thought you might have been an ABBA dancing queen in a previous life. (All in good fun there, we’ve all missed the beat once in our lives)
But if you can’t get it done; If you find you can’t keep your promises, it’s time to step down and let a Brexiteer take up the Brexit mantle — delivering the Brexit that you promised to more than 17.4 million Britons — and to many former Remainers who also want the misery/economic uncertainty to end and are saying things like, “Just get it done!” and “Let’s move past this divisive part of UK history!”
We know you tried your best, but you just came up short.
To Theresa May’s Credit…
She’s done a great job on the economy. All stats are charting in the right direction. People ‘in work’ are at an all-time high. Unemployment is at an all-time low.
The NHS has recently had its best showing in The Commonwealth Fund’s rigorous healthcare outcomes rankings (#1 out of the top 11 healthcare systems in the world) People seem more fulfilled and are living longer in the UK. And government departments seem more efficient and relevant to UK citizens (and to bloggers looking for information, quotes, or charts) So it wasn’t all bad.
In fact, maybe in retrospect Theresa May did a great job on the economy and in many other ways. Perhaps Brexit is her nemesis.
What to Do for the Next 31 Days?
Assuming Theresa May isn’t using some arcane negotiating trick against the EU to get a deal before the March 29, 2019 deadline (which could be a thing, I suppose) every Brexiteer in the world will be counting backwards from £100-billion — because that’s about how costly the past 2.5 years, plus the proposed negotiating extension period will harm the UK economy due to the economic uncertainty attached to the outrageously long Withdrawal Agreement negotiating period.
C’est la vie.