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French Election: A de facto Referendum on Frexit?

by John Brian Shannon

French voters heading to the polls on Sunday may notice that public opinion has been shifting in recent days towards Frexit. Even Emmanuel Macron the ‘establishment’ candidate hints that Frexit might be in the cards if the EU doesn’t reform.

Emmanuel Macron warns EU it must change or France will make swift Frexit (The Sun)

Marine Le Pen continues to gain in the polls and with only days to go before the vote, one wonders what would happen if the vote were a month on? Probably a Le Pen victory if the present trend continues.

Alas, the vote will be held on May 7, not June 7, but it shows how voter preferences are changing as each day passes.

Latest French Election Polls: Le Pen Gains on Macron (Newsweek)

Still, a threat to leave the EU coming from an establishment candidate for the French presidency is shocking, as was the violence on the streets of Paris, a.k.a. the City of Love.


Could a new French president influence the Brexit process?

If Marine Le Pen is elected, the EU will face two nations with plans to leave the Union — Britain and France.

On the other hand, if Emmanuel Macron is elected (and if the EU won’t agree to the changes requested by Macron) it seems likely Frexit will occur anyway.


Back to the effects of the French election on the UK;

In the case where the United Kingdom (alone) leaves the EU, all of the hurt, anger and blame felt by the jilted party (the EU Parliament) will be focused on UK voters and their political leaders.

But in the case where both Britain and France decide to leave the EU, the Union may have no choice but to accept that the democratic deficit in Brussels is to blame — and all of the hurt, anger and blame will be directed at Brussels by the EU bloc leaders.

And if that occurs, some necessary changes might actually occur. Although two of their best horses (Britain and France) will have already left the stable.

As traumatic as it might be, that’s what it might take for the un-democrats in Brussels to change their ways.


My view is that Emmanuel Macron will win the French presidency in the May 7th election, that the EU will not offer the changes necessary for France to remain in the Union, and that Marine Le Pen will win the 2022 election and take France out of the European Union shortly thereafter.

‘The one constant in the cosmos is change’

Let’s hope EU leaders realize the profound truth of that truism and decide to make the changes necessary for France to stay in the European Union. Otherwise, even bigger changes are coming for continental Europe. Mon Dieu! Quoi de neuf?

No Taxation Without Representation!

by John Brian Shannon

“No Taxation Without Representation!” was a term coined by Reverend Jonathan Mayhew in a sermon in Boston in 1750.

By 1761 the terminology was changed by James Otis who said; “Taxation without representation is tyranny!” referring to the level of resentment felt by American colonists at being taxed by a British Parliament where the colonists elected no representatives and received no tangible benefit.

It became an anti-British slogan in the years leading up to the American Revolution. Eventually Britain lost control of its colony, and after a dreadful war that colony became known as the United States of America.

They say the only two certainties in life are Death and Taxes. But surely not far behind is the Negative Fallout of taxation without representation.

And in the 1700’s Britain made a costly error. After all, how many can say they once owned the territory we now call North America and lost it?


Some 250 years later, the EU Parliament having failed to learn one of the most important lessons of modern history, is now doing a similar thing.

The EU Parliament wants to tax Britons, but not allow them representation in the European Union Parliament from March 29, 2017 through March 29, 2019 — even though Britain will remain a dues-paying European Union member during that time.


The un-democrats in Brussels think it’s fine to continue taxing Britons £30 million (net) per day but won’t allow them a seat at the table! That totals £22 billion from March 2017 to March 2019, in exchange for exactly zero decision-making ability during that time.

British MEP’s (Member of the European Parliament) can make statements, answer questions and challenge EU MEP’s on their assertions, but they can’t enter any room where actual EU decisions are made, nor will they be allowed to vote on legislation in the EU Parliament.

Which isn’t democratic! No public relations agency on Earth could spin that situation into an example of democracy.

When British taxpayers are paying £22 billion over two years with no political representation, it’s a textbook case of taxation without representation.

The question to ask yourself is; Could Britain spend that £22 billion ‘better’ than the EU?

Were I Prime Minister Theresa May, I wouldn’t unilaterally pull out of the EU via the WTO route, because this situation hasn’t begun to gather momentum!

Once British taxpayers realize that they are (and have been for a long time!) sending £30 million per day to the EU and now British MEP’s can’t vote on EU legislation, they’ll realize how badly they’ve been used.

The longer this goes on, the better for the Brexit camp as it shows what the European Union is all about. And in Britain’s case, it was always about using Britain as a cash cow to fund EU priorities while flying under the media radar.

“Fool me once, it’s your fault. Fool me twice, and it’s my fault.”


Not only does the EU Parliament want Britain to continue to subsidize the European Union to the tune of £30 million per day until March 29, 2019 — it also wants Britain to pay a £52 billion ‘divorce payment’ now and in full — before Brexit negotiations begin.

The question to ask yourself is; Could Britain spend that £52 billion ‘better’ than the EU?

Nigel Farage called it the EU ‘Mafia’ racket (which he later retracted) while others having come to the realization of what it represents to the British taxpayer will rightfully conclude it’s a case of taxation without representation via extortion — because the EU won’t allow Brexit negotiations to proceed until the payola is received.


The European Union wants 74 billion pounds (in total) before Brexit negotiations begin

The EU wants Britain to pay £74 billion before Brexit negotiations begin but won’t allow Britain a seat at the EU decision-making table even as Britain remains a dues-paying member of the European Union.

And that isn’t democracy, that’s tyranny mixed with kleptocracy.


Related Article:

Brexit Begins: March 29

by John Brian Shannon | March 20, 2017

UK Prime Minister Theresa May says she intends to proceed to exit the EU on March 29. Brexit begins…

Theresa May will trigger EU withdrawal talks under Article 50 on March 29, Downing Street has announced

The Prime Minister’s letter officially notifying the European Council of the UK’s intention to quit will set in train a two-year negotiation process expected to lead to Britain leaving the EU on March 29 2019.

Britain’s ambassador to the EU, Sir Tim Barrow, informed the office of European Council president Donald Tusk on Monday morning of the Prime Minister’s plans.

The Brexit Bill – officially called the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill – was given the green light last week after being signed off by the Queen. — metro.co.uk

First on the agenda will be whether May can negotiate unrestricted access to EU markets for Britain, and how much access European Union citizens and industry will have to the United Kingdom. It’s likely to require a substantial amount of time, patience, and great diplomatic skill on both sides of the negotiating table.

Of secondary importance will be the decisions taken on customs and immigration. The EU has lost control of its external border as the Schengen Area borders effectively collapsed when millions of Syrian, Middle Eastern and African refugees began streaming into the southern European Union.

And the third negotiating point will likely relate to the status of EU citizens who live and work inside the UK, and of Britons who work or retired in the European Union.

Brexit Begins in Britain on March 29, 2017...

Brexit Begins in Britain on March 29, 2017. Image created by Samankashwaha.

In total, some 3.3 million EU citizens live in Britain, but nobody has kept an accurate count of this (nobody!) nor has any government agency kept count. In the European Union it’s thought that 1.1 million Britons live or work on the EU side of the border. Except that nobody knows for sure. One side is just as broken as the other. Facepalm!

Experts and commentators unanimously agree that it will take years, perhaps 10-years or more to hammer out an agreement on all the current issues between the European Union and the United Kingdom. Let’s hope that cooler heads prevail and that we don’t add mountains of new issues to the existing list of items to be discussed and resolved. It’s going to be a monumental work as it is.

It’s important to remember that in a ‘Win-Win’ relationship, whatever gets solved, becomes a ‘Win-Win’ for the politicians involved. Which is handy, come the next election.

While the UK side has seemed apprehensive and tentative at times, particularly in the immediate aftermath of a June 23rd EU referendum result which saw 52% of voters choose to ‘Leave’ the European Union — the EU side has taken an increasingly hostile position — as if senior EU politicians have taken it personally that Britons voted to ‘Leave’ and as a voter attack on their cherished institutions.

However, if European Union membership were that wonderful, not one person would have considered leaving the EU… but the simple fact is, more than 17 million British voters elected to leave the EU governance architecture.

And no matter what — no matter what! — the will of voters always trumps the will of politicians. We’ve seen it time and again throughout history. Yes, totalitarian states can ‘hang on to power’ for a time using the full resources of the state, until such times as the state collapses and the strongman is overthrown, but such things are supposed to be impossible in democratic states.

Let’s hope that the European Union lives up to its high democratic ideals and allows nations to leave as easily as they join!

On the bright side, it could be that by voting to Brexit the citizens of the United Kingdom will have assisted the EU to take the concerns, disappointments and perceived slights of member-state citizens more seriously in the future. Otherwise, Brexit will simply become one part of a much larger process, resulting in the eventual dissolution of the Union. And that would be a shame.