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Why Would British MP’s Approve an Incomplete Withdrawal Agreement?
The UK’s draft Withdrawal Agreement is a fine agreement except that it lacks in one key area; The so-called ‘backstop’ portion of the agreement which has no end-date. It’s a major flaw in the draft and it must be removed.
The backstop means that if the UK and the EU don’t reach a free trade deal in 2019 the UK will be stuck in the EU Customs Union forever, and will never be able to negotiate its own trade deals. And the opportunity to take back control of the UK’s trading relationships was one of four main reasons that Britons voted to Leave the European Union.
Remember the four metrics of Brexit success?
- Take back control of the UK’s borders and immigration
- Take back control of the UK legal system
- Take back control of the UK economy
- Take back control of UK trade
In the so-called ‘Political Declaration’ between the two parties there is reference to the backstop which states that it’s expected a free trade agreement will eventually be worked out between the two sides — neatly solving the problem of the backstop clause.
But as they’ve had 2 1/2 years to work these issues out and still haven’t (not even close) it doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence and voters on both sides of the English Channel are entitled to better service from their politicians than that. CEO’s must be wondering, too. Much of the EU’s trade is with the UK and 2 1/2 years later, no free trade agreement is in sight even though the UK is leaving the European Union on March 29, 2019. Very disappointing.
And Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk’s replacements can choose to be bound by, or not be bound by the non binding Political Declaration as both of those EU leaders step down after May 26, 2019 to make room for newly appointed EC and EU Presidents. We don’t know who those new leaders will be, nor do we know how they view the draft Withdrawal Agreement, nor do we know if they’ll give two hoots about what the non legally binding Political Declaration says. (If I were them, I wouldn’t either!)
How to Fix It
If the draft Withdrawal Agreement fails to pass in the House of Commons tomorrow (as expected) Britons can breathe a sigh of relief because almost certainly the backstop clause will be removed in time to get an amended Withdrawal Agreement passed in the House of Commons before Brexit day on March 29, 2019.
And one reason we can count on that is the EU operates a stunning £95 billion trade surplus with the UK (£67 billion net) and without a free trade agreement, businesses on both sides will suffer greatly. When there’s £95 billion on the line you can bet CEO’s will pressure their respective governments and a trade deal will happen quickly! Or heads will roll.
For goodness sake, it’s a trade agreement between two nations that have traded with each other for centuries! It’s not like the Klingons and the Romulans opening trade relations! How hard can it be?
The way to fix this situation is for British MP’s to vote down the draft Withdrawal Agreement tomorrow and encourage CEO’s on both sides of the Channel to put significant pressure on Theresa May, Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk until they get their jobs done properly which is what they should’ve been doing all along.
Doing their jobs properly — even if it’s already a year late and counting — means removing the backstop completely, or inserting a firm end date for Customs Union membership and getting a free trade deal done by July 1, 2019.
Any level of success lower than that should be considered unacceptable by citizens, by European industry, and by any country that trades with the UK or the EU.
Brexit & Customs Union – The New Brexit Deal?
UK Prime Minister Theresa May continues to reach out to the EU in order to obtain a workable Brexit deal for both sides. As of today, she’s planning to offer a Brexit deal whereby the UK would stay in a Customs Union with the EU for a specified time in order to give negotiators the time they need to iron out their differences on the Northern Ireland question and other Brexit matters.
Some genuinely admire Ms. May’s efforts in this regard but wonder if she has spent too much time and effort ‘pitching’ to the EU without getting anything in return. It seems for all her good intentions all the EU side says is, ‘No’, ‘No’, and more ‘No’.
Indeed, that’s all they’ve been doing — the more Theresa May offers, the more the EU wants!
And unless the EU side suddenly gets more reasonable it’s going to end badly for both sides.
Is Brexit + a Time-Limited Customs Union Agreement Brexit In Name Only?
For hardline Brexiteers, such a capitulation (for that is how they will surely see it) would be considered a so-called BRINO (a Brexit In Name Only) and is worth much less to them than a so-called Hard Brexit where the UK would leave without the benefit of an agreement with the EU and the UK would be free to embark on any path it chooses.
The EU’s intransigence feeds this feeling among Brexiteers and it seems to be catching-on with moderates in recent weeks.
But there are positives to such a Customs Union plan.
It’s worth noting at this point that negotiators on both sides have been working to create a workable Brexit deal for 2-years and 4-months and have precious little to show for it. The combined total successes are zero and the European default to ‘Low Ambition’ is on full display. Yes, very European.
Yet, responsible leaders continue to throw themselves into finding a Brexit plan that works for both sides. For which they get nothing but abuse and insults on both sides of the English Channel. Shameful.
In the end, obtaining a Brexit deal that results in the least amount of disruption to both economies is the best outcome. And if that means the UK continues on in a Customs Union with the EU for 2-years to give negotiators the time to arrange a suitable Brexit deal — one that includes a proper Northern Ireland agreement — it’s worth the effort.
In the case of failure to reach an agreement for Northern Ireland and other Brexit issues, then a Hard Brexit would remain the only option.
But at least the UK will have put its best effort into obtaining a workable Brexit and any blame for that failure will fall squarely on the European Union as the facts will show Theresa May has been working diligently on the Brexit file through her entire Premiership and has been bending over backwards to find a suitable deal over the past 2-years, while the EU side has been cross with Ms. May for having the temerity to listen to UK voters.
If May Presents a Time-Limited Customs Union Plan, MP’s Should Support It
As they say here in North America, if you give the Europeans a week they’ll take a year and still be a few days late, just on principle.
The same holds true with negotiations: Look at the CETA deal that Canada and the EU negotiated. SEVEN YEARS! (And it’s still not fully implemented)
If the Canadian government had allowed it to go on and on it might have been 2025 by the time it was ready to sign. It seems someone on the Canadian side got a little bossy with the Europeans. Thank you Chrystia Freeland! (Canada’s excellent Foreign Minister) Eight years on, CETA is only partially implemented and none of the EU27 have ratified it. Historic Low Ambition!
Under no circumstances should a UK government ever enter into non-time-limited negotiations with any party, especially with the European Union.
You see what Theresa May is up against?
If there isn’t a strict time limit, the wheeling and dealing will go on forever. And with Theresa May’s well-intentioned but naive personality if it isn’t strictly time limited, by 2025 she will have negotiated away every bit of UK territory, wealth, and rights to the EU — which still won’t be enough for the EU side.
And if that is true, what is the benefit of dragging out negotiations over many years when putting them on a strict timetable will either timeforce an agreement on both parties or allow the UK to get on with creating a better future for Britons free of EU constraints.
Related Article:
- May agrees to curbs on trade to break Brexit deadlock (The Times)
Letter to Britain 