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34 Days Until Brexit & Still Awaiting a Deal
Are politicians becoming irrelevant in the 21st-century?
If you’re judging them by their failure to create a legally binding Brexit Withdrawal Agreement that can be ratified by the UK and EU27 countries, then, yes, they have (all of them) conspired to make themselves irrelevant over the past 2.5+ years.
Because it should’ve been slam-dunk easy to arrange a deal between people who are European partners, NATO allies, and leaders of countries sharing the Western way of life; Freedom, democracy, a capitalist economic model, and so much more!
It’s not as if Theresa May is negotiating with the Klingons. There should’ve been a deal, no excuses.
So, what is it with these people? Don’t they want to be important? Are they afraid of success? Have they become self-hating politicians seeking to destroy the very system that brought them to power?
If we go on facts alone, each of those points has some amount of merit attached to them. But it just doesn’t feel right to attribute those things to those politicians.
Which means something else is going on.
If You Asked the Leaders of the UK & the EU27 ‘What’s Going On?’ You’d Get 28 Different Answers
So, no point in doing that.
But let’s hope that the UK and the 11th-hour people (the EU27) decide to make themselves important again by arranging a deal before March 29, 2019, or the protests by the yellow vest movement in France may seem tiny by comparison. (I hope I’m wrong)
Has anyone checked on yellow vest sales in the UK and EU27 countries lately? Could hundreds of millions of yellow vests be ‘on order’ for people to wear in the event of a ‘No Deal’ Brexit caused by their incompetent politicians?
Any reports on UK and EU27 countries buying-up water cannons by the dozen from third-world dictatorships?
Because I would expect all that and more to become true in the case of a ‘No Deal’ Brexit — a political failure with no good reason other than misplaced pride on one side and hurt feelings on the other. C’mon people, we’ve got to be bigger than this!
In EU28 countries famous for street riots (that would be all of them) over a lost soccer match of all things, I can only imagine what kind of riots would occur should Europe’s politicians fail to deliver a decent Withdrawal Agreement to keep the economy going.
You know, the industry (jobs) retail stores (jobs) and transportation systems (jobs and consumer convenience) that 500 million Europeans rely on?
The End of Democracy in Europe?
The once mighty Soviet Union sneered at peaceful citizen protest and look what happened to it.
Joe Stalin famously laughed off suggestions that the Church could have any effect on the Soviet Union — a country more powerful than any other in the world except the United States, saying, “How many (military) divisions has the Pope?” and yet it was the Catholic Church that mobilized hundreds of thousands of Poles to peacefully obstruct the USSR in Poland thereby bringing a resounding end to the Soviet Union; A military hyper-power dismantled in weeks.
“In the end, the people always win.” — King Louis the XVI
OK, maybe he didn’t say that. Or, maybe he just didn’t have enough time to say it before losing the ability to speak. But that doesn’t make that contrived quote any less true. The People always win.
Which is why politicians must always succeed for The People, be seen to be succeeding for The People, and be aware that at all times their power base is The People and only The People.
Let’s hope that Europe’s politicians don’t unwittingly create another Gordian Knot (but this time an economic one) that destroys them and everything that made Europe all that it is today, just because they can’t get a simple Brexit Withdrawal Agreement signed by March 29. After all, they’ve had over 2.5+ years to get it done and The People aren’t getting any more patient with their leaders.
It’s time to succeed or it’s time to get out of politics and flee the coming riot zone, IMHO. Australia should be far enough, but I offer no guarantees.
Success is the Only Option that Makes Sense
In the end, let’s hope that the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement delay is about all about an 11th-hour bargaining ploy to get better terms — and life (and democracy in Europe) can continue without whole-scale change interrupting what became the world’s foremost worst-to-first story every day since May 8, 1945.
Let us not go backwards ever again. But let us go forward as brethren and allies, and let enduring peace and prosperity be our guide. We must be that, or all of it has been in vain.
34 days until Brexit & European politicians seem moribund, or are they using the ol’ 11th-hour negotiating ploy to get the best deal? We’ll soon know.
Where Do We Go From Here? A Brexit Bullet List
1. Theresa May’s draft Withdrawal Agreement fails in the UK House of Commons by a vote of 432-202, the largest government defeat since the 1920’s.
2. But all is not lost as most of those voting against the draft Withdrawal Agreement (WA) were voting against tiny portions of it. Were those paragraphs to be changed the draft Withdrawal Agreement would pass in the House of Commons with flying colours as much of the draft agreement was already acceptable to British MP’s.
3. I don’t blame Theresa May for wanting to put the draft Withdrawal Agreement through Parliament for the simple reason that when both sides have negotiated in good faith (and they have) when one side agrees a deal (the EU27) it’s understandable for them to expect the proposal will be offered up for a vote on the other side (the UK House of Commons) It’s simply a case of showing the proper diplomatic respect they’re entitled to as a good faith negotiating partner — nothing more, nothing less.
4. Of course, British MP’s have every right to politely refuse such a deal and they did just that yesterday, January 15, 2019 by an almost unprecedented margin of 230 votes.
5. But had it passed in the House of Commons yesterday, the draft WA would’ve instantly become law in both countries and all problems relating to Brexit would’ve been solved — save for the highly contentious Irish backstop arrangement, and possibly some minor points contained within the otherwise excellent draft Withdrawal Agreement.
6. So, instead of ‘throwing the baby out with the bath water’ the government should offer the proposed Withdrawal Agreement for examination in a paragraph-by-paragraph debate in the House of Commons. This could be done very rapidly. Each paragraph takes only a minute to read aloud and MP’s could then vote on each paragraph or block of similar text in a matter of minutes. I haven’t counted how many paragraphs or text blocks are in the draft WA, but within two days MP’s would’ve approved most of the draft WA — and the sections that weren’t approved by British MP’s would be by then clearly identified.
7. Having clearly identified the offending paragraphs of the draft WA the government would then be tasked with finding solutions to those offending paragraphs — and each successful solution would need to be voted up in Parliament and added to the draft Withdrawal Agreement as amendments.
8. Finally, the House of Commons having approved each paragraph of the reworked deal would need to vote on the entirety of the amended Withdrawal Agreement and pass it with a simple majority; Shortly thereafter, Theresa May would present the amended Withdrawal Agreement to the EU27 for their approval, comments, or counter-proposal.
9. All this needs to occur in January as time is against both the UK and the EU with only 73-days left until the automatic default kicks in; A No Deal Brexit. (And many of us are fine with that and think that any claims of economic Armageddon are grotesquely overstated and based on irrational fear instead of fact. Where are all the detailed studies showing that the UK would sink beneath the waves never to surface again? Hint: There aren’t any) Nevertheless, if British MP’s on both sides of the House want a negotiated Brexit deal, good on them. That’s just them being responsible. But remember, it takes two to tango. They can’t order the EU to accept a negotiated exit agreement.
10. Any talk about extending Article 50 is irresponsible as it stirs the public towards civil conflict and causes citizens to lose faith in all elected officials.
11. Any talk about extending Article 50 by the government side of the House is silly because if Theresa May and her ministers couldn’t get a deal with Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk (who have been sweet and patient with the British side) what makes Theresa May and her ministers think they’re going to get a deal with whomever replaces Juncker and Tusk at the end of May 2019, after the EU elections? That’s not saying that I agree with Mr. Juncker or Mr. Tusk on certain points regarding Brexit. Understandably, they’re in business for the EU27 not for the UK. But the UK government has wasted precious time ‘playing it’ seemingly for political purposes over the past 2 1/2 years and now they’re in bigger trouble than they know — because whomever replaces the soft and fuzzy crew of Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk won’t be as accommodating as those two gentlemen. In short, the grass won’t be greener on the other side of May 29th. To put it mildly.
12. Almost no one wants to leave the EU without a deal. No Deal fears are wildly and irresponsibly overblown. However, British MP’s and most Britons say a negotiated deal is a better pathway forward. Therefore, it’s imperative to get a deal even if the fears that drive us toward a negotiated deal are greatly exaggerated. (Doing the ‘right thing’ for the ‘wrong reasons’ can still work for Britain) Theresa May’s draft WA (which was already approved by the EU27) forms the basis of, and the best chance for, a negotiated agreement. Rather than trying to re-invent the wheel at this late stage, it’s better through a series of paragraph by paragraph amendments to improve only the paragraphs that need improvement and after approval of the whole amended document by a majority of MP’s, Theresa May can present the Amended Withdrawal Agreement to Mr. Juncker and Mr. Tusk for their kind consideration. Let’s hope that works, because then both sides can finish with Brexit and get back to the important work of governing their respective people.
13. Perhaps the most important point of all is that British MP’s of all parties should continue to support Theresa May’s government and the Motion of No Confidence slated for 7:00pm tomorrow (January 16, 2019) should fail, as the quickest path to a negotiated Brexit is an amended Withdrawal Agreement. Theresa May should remain as Prime Minister, and the entire Conservative Party, the entire DUP, and MP’s from other parties should vote to keep her on the job.
14. As bad as the optics of it are, all that’s really happened over the past 24-hours is that British MP’s were offered the opportunity by Theresa May’s government to vote on a draft Withdrawal Agreement that the EU27 had previously approved. And as the EU27 has negotiated in good faith they deserved to know the answer to their proposal. Not allowing the EU27 to receive an answer to their proposal would’ve been extremely disrespectful. And that’s not the way to begin a new relationship with an important trading partner with whom we share so much history.
Image courtesy of BBC – Data from Commons Votes Services.
Letter to Britain 