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PM Theresa May Takes Calls on LBC: November 16, 2018
UK Prime Minister Offers Her Draft Brexit Proposal and Chaos Ensues!
Since Prime Minister Theresa May offered her 585 page draft Brexit document to the UK Cabinet, she has lost 2 Cabinet officials and 5 junior officials, with rumblings of perhaps double that amount to submit their resignations by Monday of next week, and further on this, ERG spokesman Jacob Rees-Mogg has submitted a Letter of No Confidence to the Conservative party executive.
It may be that Jacob’s letter to the party executive is the first of many such letters and according to the rules, once 48 such letters are received the party can then trigger a leadership contest to replace the Prime Minister. Which would be bad timing in the extreme for anyone who cares about obtaining a decent Brexit.
There is of course, only one problem with the draft document that Theresa May has proposed (and apparently the EU27 have approved) and it is that there is no mechanism for the UK to leave the proposed Customs Union before the Implementation Period ends in 2020, nor at any time following the Implementation Period.
Which means the UK will be stuck in the EU’s Customs Union and subject to their regulations indefinitely with no way out. A complete non-starter.
It’s been pointed out that it would be more difficult for the UK to leave that neverending Customs Union agreement than to leave the EU using the Article 50 clause of the Treaty on European Union. Scary thought.
The Present Chaos Will Continue Until PM May Makes a Move – Any Move!
Her choices are limited, but she must act quickly to minimize the slow motion car crash that is HM government at this time.
- She could resign, which is a terrible idea. Theresa May is the best person and is the person Britons voted for to carry out Brexit. Not only that, she’s more informed about Brexit than any of her ministers, and has been living in the eye of the storm moreso than any other House of Commons member since the EU referendum.
- She could do nothing and just let the present chaos continue, which is an even worse idea. More Cabinet Secretaries, ministers, department heads and even junior staff are poised to quit their posts in the coming days in the absence of positive steps by Theresa May to remedy the failures of the draft Brexit document.
- Theresa May could hit the talk shows to explain her Brexit proposal more fully to Britons, which is somewhat worthwhile, but that conversation will forever come back to the fact that there is no mechanism for the UK to get out of the EU Customs Union. Ever. The UK will forever be chained to the EU by the present draft agreement — even if Italy and Greece suffer a massive economic crash and take the whole works into a disastrous and long-lasting economic depression. In which case, so much for the Brexit dividend!
- The Prime Minister could put the present flawed agreement to a free vote in the House of Commons, which would prove to her how insufficient this draft proposal really is. (I don’t think she gets it) Remember, a free vote allows MP’s to vote using their own conscience and in such votes party whips focus on nothing but getting MP’s to the chamber so they don’t miss the vote. I doubt that it would muster 50 votes out of 650 at this point. Maybe much less, if she waits a week.
- Theresa May could put the present flawed agreement to a normal vote in the House of Commons and policed by party whips and it still wouldn’t pass. Not only that, she would then face the double jeopardy of more Cabinet resignations and the body politic even more frustrated with their politicians. The media… would love it though! It was nice to see them so happy to have some exciting news to report since the moment the Prime Minister released her draft proposal.
- The Prime Minister’s best course of action would be to add an end date to the document, present it to her Cabinet for their approval, and the next day present it in the House of Commons for a free vote — and it would likely pass with flying colours. However, it might not pass with the mandarins in Brussels. But a little bit of moxie is what is needed at this time, not more appeasement. I can’t stress enough, this option is the best option by a very wide margin. The EU is just going to have to like it — or make a counter-proposal — something they’ve done precious little of during the Brexit process. And why would they? So far, it’s been Theresa May negotiating with Conservative MP’s, with Labour MP’s, with her own Cabinet, and with herself. It’s time to put the EU side on the hotseat. At the very least, it will prevent an ongoing political bloodbath for Ms. May, it will help her to keep her job, it will put some of the responsibility for a successful Brexit on the shoulders of the EU side (as it should be, as it takes two to tango) and it is the most efficient way of getting past the present disastrous moment.
- If Theresa May feels she can’t do as I suggest in #6 above, she needs to resign OR she needs to declare that this draft proposal was stillborn and we are now onto a Hard Brexit which would save British taxpayers £40 billion. Or as much as £51.5 billion which is the number that is buzzing around over the past few days.
In the present political climate and with dissatisfaction by voters from all parties growing by the hour, Prime Minister May’s worst option is to do nothing.
She must act decisively, for her career, for her party’s fortunes, and for the good of the country. Sitting this one out just isn’t an option.
Theresa May’s ‘Hotel California’ Brexit Proposal
So, welcome fellow travellers… to the EU’s very own ‘Hotel California’ where, apparently, ‘you can check-in any time you like, but you can never leave’.
But of course we know that the UK can leave the European Union — that is why the UK government triggered Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union that allows a country to leave the bloc.
Then, we found out that it was going to cost £40 billion (and suddenly, as of yesterday, we find out that it may cost as much as £51.5 billion) Of course, nobody knows what the money is for. The UK taxpayer is supposed to pay it without asking any questions.
Then, we found out the EU was trying to take Northern Ireland by stealth, tying it to the EU Customs Union forever (while the rest of the UK was no longer allowed to remain within the Customs Union) as the first step of Northern Ireland’s assimilation into the EU.
Then, the EU having failed at trying to pry Northern Ireland from the United Kingdom using the ol’ distract ’em with a Customs Deal shell game, Theresa May was (again) summoned to Brussels and promptly returned with a deal that looked for all the world like it was written by the EU’s very own negotiators — complete with a clause allowing the entire UK to stay within the EU’s Customs Union — but with no mechanism for the UK to ever leave that Customs Union. Forever is a long time.
Which brings us to the great and timeless song by the Eagles… Hotel California!
Hotel California by the Eagles
(The last half of the song is paraphrased by Letter To Britain for your listening pleasure. Feel free to play the video and follow along with the ‘updated’ lyrics)
Welcome to the European Union
Such a lovely place (such a lovely place)
Such a lovely face.
They livin’ it up at the EU down in Brussels
What a nice surprise (what a nice surprise), bring your alibis.
Mirrors on the ceiling,
Billions pound sterling on ice
And Theresa May said, ‘we are all just prisoners here… of our own device’
Deep in Brussel’s chambers,
They gathered for the sterling feast
They stab the UK with their steely knives,
But they just can’t kill Britain’s spirit.
Last thing smart people remember, we were
Running for the door
We had to find the passage back to the place we were before
‘Relax’ said Barnier the EU’s man tonight,
‘We are programmed to receive.
You can check out any time you like,
But you can never leave!’
All of which means that Theresa May and the rest of HM government should be very careful about how they proceed towards the full and complete Brexit that 17.4 million Britons voted for in June 2016.
Because if this is the only deal on offer, even Remainers will understand that the so-called ‘No Deal’ Brexit is the better option. And, as this is the only offer approved by the EU apparatchiks at this time, a No Deal Brexit must now become the default option for the United Kingdom.
Theresa May Offers a Draft Brexit Deal to Cabinet
Until now I’ve been a strong Theresa May supporter. After all, she jumped at the chance to become ‘The Brexit Prime Minister’ and she respected the will of the British electorate by acting appropriately on the result of the June 23, 2016 EU referendum, and she has endured a brutal schedule spending countless hours flying to European capitals to arrange a sensible and fair Brexit agreement (an amazingly thankless task that even her political enemies acknowledge is thankless) and now, she and her ministers have carved-out a Brexit agreement that EU negotiators say will be signed by all 27 EU countries. (What the EU negotiators say, and what EU27 leaders will do, may be two different things. We’ll see)
This, in addition to fulfilling all her other duties, qualifies her in my mind as operating a very successful premiership.
However, it did not go unnoticed that Theresa May is now quoting THREE possible Brexit outcomes; (1) Theresa May’s Brexit deal, (2) A No Deal/WTO Brexit or, (3) cancelling Brexit.
Whereas prior to being pressured by her party and the media Theresa May was only quoting TWO possible Brexit outcomes; (a) A negotiated Brexit deal, or, (b) a No Deal/WTO Brexit.
Which represents a big difference in political thought and a very dangerous game could begin thereby impacting civil order in the UK, and Conservative Party fortunes well into the future.
Does Theresa May (The Brexit Prime Minister!) Pose an Existential Threat to Brexit?
No doubt that every Brexiteer on planet Earth has taken it as a threat that Theresa May intends to revoke Great Britain’s Article 50 notification to the European Union if she doesn’t get what she wants.
And extrapolating that for a moment, and as Theresa May is a self-confessed Remainer; Brexiteers must assume that Theresa May is aiming for a BRINO — a Brexit in Name Only agreement.
What other conclusion can be drawn?
The definition of BRINO varies widely depending upon whom you consult; For example, Brexiteers say that BRINO will create a situation whereby (via a weak Brexit agreement) the UK becomes worse-off than if it had stayed within the European Union — many orders of magnitude worse than a Hard Brexit which is what most Brexiteers favour — whereas BRINO to a Remainer means the only difference is that Britons continue to pay Europe’s bills but with less say in EU spending, less say in EU legislation that affects the UK, and Britons will enjoy a more arm’s length relationship with the EU.
Much worse than either of those two options is that Article 50 could be cancelled by Theresa May — especially if you’re the Conservative and Unionist Party of Great Britain and Northern Ireland which would likely be removed from power at the next election and might not form a government for decades.
Smaller betrayals of the people’s trust have started civil wars and the Conservatives would roast themselves if they allowed Theresa May to revoke Article 50 thereby cancelling Brexit. Assuming it could be legally cancelled, and assuming that the EU would agree to the cancellation.
To be Fair to Theresa May…
To be fair to Prime Minister Theresa May, her comment might have been made in the heat of the moment. We all do that. Sometimes we say more than we mean to say especially when the pressure’s on. And if that’s the case, we must remember the sportsman’s rule of “No harm, no foul” and carry on without mentioning it further or using it to embarrass Ms. May.
But if Theresa May is using the threat of cancelling Brexit in order to force her Cabinet and her party into voting for her Brexit deal, Conservative MP’s will have two choices; Hold their noses and vote for the Theresa May deal and fire her shortly after the official Brexit date, or fire her now and replace her with an interim leader who will continue the Brexit process without resorting to such threats.
However, if Theresa May is to be fired by her party for threatening to undo the result of the democratically held EU referendum to get her chosen (some would say BRINO) Brexit deal approved, she deserves to know in advance. For Conservative MP’s to gather 48 or more members on the so-called 1922 Committee to overthrow her as party leader and Prime Minister (which is allowed in the Conservative Party constitution) without a warning or opportunity to retract part of her statement would be unseemly.
In such cases where the leader and 48 or more members disagree on an important policy or part of policy, or of conduct of a Prime Minister, the 1922 Committee members should appear at 10 Downing Street and sign-in at the guest register and inform the Prime Minister of their intentions to remove her from the position of Prime Minister unless she retracts that part of her speech, comments, or policy, that offends them.
Jacob Rees-Mogg MP, ERG, on Theresa May’s (Draft) Brexit Deal
If those 48 or more 1922 Committee members don’t appear at 10 Downing St. and forewarn the Prime Minister of their intentions, they risk becoming complicit in her error, or they are a ‘paper tiger’ political force powered by sound bites alone, or they’ve already made the decision to fire her at the first opportunity.
Perhaps by virtue of their appearance at 10 Downing Street to politely notify the Prime Minister of their intention, Theresa May will have the opportunity to explain to them that she hadn’t meant it the way they’ve taken it, or that she simply said it in the heat of the battle; In either case, no harm done.
At the very least, it might register with Theresa May that although she faces negative consequences in the EU as she arranges the best Brexit that she can, she and her party will also face negative consequences within the UK if she doesn’t practice the very best form of statecraft — both foreign and domestic.
Finally, I wouldn’t wish Theresa May’s job on anyone — not even my worst enemy — for the Brexit Prime Minister’s job has got to be one of the most under-appreciated jobs in the world — yet with all of that said, she and every subsequent Prime Minister must ‘get it right’ regardless of the challenges.
Here’s to a better level of understanding between Prime Minister Theresa May, her party, and to British citizens!
The Point of All This?
In Theresa May’s defence, the EU-approved Canada+++ proposal doesn’t solve the seemingly *highly contrived* (by the EU) or *vastly overstated* (by the UK) problem of a border in the Irish Sea and a hard land border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland — which is a problem that mere handfuls of politicians on both sides of the English Channel are concerned about.
I say highly contrived or vastly overstated because nowhere in the Belfast Agreement does it say there can’t be a Hard Border.
In Theresa May’s mind, she has delivered a 100% perfect deal that addresses every problem related to Brexit. And in the end, that may turn out to be 100% true.
That some of those problems may have been contrived or overstated by incredibly small numbers of politicians seems to have escaped her. Still, as long as the entire implementation period and/or temporary Customs Union membership has a firm end-date, that’s good enough for me.
*No end date* should equate to *no deal* IMHO.
Related Articles:
- Theresa May’s Brexit statement in full (The Times)
- How to Create a ‘Win-Win’ Northern Ireland Agreement (LetterToBritain)
- In the Brexit Home Stretch there are Only Three Possibilities (LetterToBritain)
- Read the entire text of The Belfast Agreement in downloadable PDF form (gov.uk)
Letter to Britain 