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34 Days Until Brexit & Still Awaiting a Deal
Are politicians becoming irrelevant in the 21st-century?
If you’re judging them by their failure to create a legally binding Brexit Withdrawal Agreement that can be ratified by the UK and EU27 countries, then, yes, they have (all of them) conspired to make themselves irrelevant over the past 2.5+ years.
Because it should’ve been slam-dunk easy to arrange a deal between people who are European partners, NATO allies, and leaders of countries sharing the Western way of life; Freedom, democracy, a capitalist economic model, and so much more!
It’s not as if Theresa May is negotiating with the Klingons. There should’ve been a deal, no excuses.
So, what is it with these people? Don’t they want to be important? Are they afraid of success? Have they become self-hating politicians seeking to destroy the very system that brought them to power?
If we go on facts alone, each of those points has some amount of merit attached to them. But it just doesn’t feel right to attribute those things to those politicians.
Which means something else is going on.
If You Asked the Leaders of the UK & the EU27 ‘What’s Going On?’ You’d Get 28 Different Answers
So, no point in doing that.
But let’s hope that the UK and the 11th-hour people (the EU27) decide to make themselves important again by arranging a deal before March 29, 2019, or the protests by the yellow vest movement in France may seem tiny by comparison. (I hope I’m wrong)
Has anyone checked on yellow vest sales in the UK and EU27 countries lately? Could hundreds of millions of yellow vests be ‘on order’ for people to wear in the event of a ‘No Deal’ Brexit caused by their incompetent politicians?
Any reports on UK and EU27 countries buying-up water cannons by the dozen from third-world dictatorships?
Because I would expect all that and more to become true in the case of a ‘No Deal’ Brexit — a political failure with no good reason other than misplaced pride on one side and hurt feelings on the other. C’mon people, we’ve got to be bigger than this!
In EU28 countries famous for street riots (that would be all of them) over a lost soccer match of all things, I can only imagine what kind of riots would occur should Europe’s politicians fail to deliver a decent Withdrawal Agreement to keep the economy going.
You know, the industry (jobs) retail stores (jobs) and transportation systems (jobs and consumer convenience) that 500 million Europeans rely on?
The End of Democracy in Europe?
The once mighty Soviet Union sneered at peaceful citizen protest and look what happened to it.
Joe Stalin famously laughed off suggestions that the Church could have any effect on the Soviet Union — a country more powerful than any other in the world except the United States, saying, “How many (military) divisions has the Pope?” and yet it was the Catholic Church that mobilized hundreds of thousands of Poles to peacefully obstruct the USSR in Poland thereby bringing a resounding end to the Soviet Union; A military hyper-power dismantled in weeks.
“In the end, the people always win.” — King Louis the XVI
OK, maybe he didn’t say that. Or, maybe he just didn’t have enough time to say it before losing the ability to speak. But that doesn’t make that contrived quote any less true. The People always win.
Which is why politicians must always succeed for The People, be seen to be succeeding for The People, and be aware that at all times their power base is The People and only The People.
Let’s hope that Europe’s politicians don’t unwittingly create another Gordian Knot (but this time an economic one) that destroys them and everything that made Europe all that it is today, just because they can’t get a simple Brexit Withdrawal Agreement signed by March 29. After all, they’ve had over 2.5+ years to get it done and The People aren’t getting any more patient with their leaders.
It’s time to succeed or it’s time to get out of politics and flee the coming riot zone, IMHO. Australia should be far enough, but I offer no guarantees.
Success is the Only Option that Makes Sense
In the end, let’s hope that the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement delay is about all about an 11th-hour bargaining ploy to get better terms — and life (and democracy in Europe) can continue without whole-scale change interrupting what became the world’s foremost worst-to-first story every day since May 8, 1945.
Let us not go backwards ever again. But let us go forward as brethren and allies, and let enduring peace and prosperity be our guide. We must be that, or all of it has been in vain.
34 days until Brexit & European politicians seem moribund, or are they using the ol’ 11th-hour negotiating ploy to get the best deal? We’ll soon know.
62 Days Until Brexit & Still No Agreement
As per present UK law, Britain is set to leave the European Union on March 29, 2019. Which is the automatic default, by the way. Even if the government were to pack up shop and go on vacation, the UK would still cease to be a member of the EU on that date.
And, as of 26 January 2019, there’s still no signed Withdrawal Agreement for leaving the EU, nor is there consensus in the UK House of Commons on amendments to Theresa May’s draft Withdrawal Agreement. Which means that the UK and the EU are headed towards a so-called ‘Hard Brexit’ where the UK leaves the EU bloc without any agreed terms, conditions, and mutual privileges.
It’s truly a sad state of affairs that 21st-century politicians can’t even agree on the terms for the UK leaving the EU bloc. You’d think they’d employ the kind of thinking that would get the job done, instead of employing the ‘Win-Lose’ thinking of the 20th-century that brought so much heartbreak to the world.
Howbeit, whether a deal is agreed tomorrow or as late as March 28, 2019 there’s no real problem — other than the fact that the business community won’t have much time to prepare for whatever terms and conditions may apply from January 1, 2020.
Not impossible. Just cutting it a bit close is all.
As You Would Expect, Remainers are Still Trying to Cancel Brexit
Their latest proposal is to support legislation delaying Brexit by 3-months or even until January 2020… ostensibly to give UK and EU politicians ‘time to think their way through’ to a solution (a Brexit agreement) that’ll work for both sides and therefore garner enough votes to pass in the House of Commons and the EU27 countries.
Of course, what it’s about is delay, delay, delay — until everyone dies of old age — or something else replaces Brexit in the European consciousness. You’ve got to know that they’re praying for a major terrorist attack (anywhere!) or another war (anywhere!) to make that bad ol’ Brexit man go away. Just make it go away, Mommy!
Yes… We know… It’s scary becoming a real country again, isn’t it? But that’s what voters want sweety and that’s what they’re going to get. So just buckle in. The adults in the room will get the job done and the sky won’t fall. You’ll be alright kitten.
Another Remainer ploy at this late stage is a proposal to have the UK government hold another EU referendum to ensure ‘The People’ voted the right way, and if not, to give them another chance. Kindness and redemption available from Remainers. So nice!
Not only that, you’ll probably get a participation badge for voting ‘the right way’ this time and the respect of un-democrats everywhere.
After Failing to Agree a Withdrawal Agreement for 2 1/2 Years and Counting; Why Do Remainers Think More Time Will Do the Trick?
As the same problems will remain — no matter how much time is added to the Brexit schedule — so how is the element of ‘more time’ expected to solve anything?
More time… won’t solve anything. In fact, it may prove harmful to the UK side on account of the upcoming EU presidential elections.
Both Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk may seem soft and fuzzy in retrospect once we compare them to the next holders of the EU and EC presidencies, and if the UK can’t get an agreement now with grandpa Juncker and uncle Tusk in office, how do we expect to get a deal with the next crew?
Especially when the fundamental issues preventing a deal won’t have changed one iota in the meantime.
The construct we call ‘time’ isn’t the problem here; It’s the issues. Get it? And either a smooth working relationship is worth preserving or it isn’t.
But if sufficient goodwill exists and if a spirit of compromise is in the air, there will be a deal, and the delays we’re experiencing are merely serving to pressure leaders into accepting a certain set of terms. If that is the case, such delays are being used as a tactic by one side to obtain the deal they want from the other side. Fair enough.
All tactics can be considered ‘fair’ as long as by the end of the process on March 29, 2019 it results in a deal that both sides can live with.
Defining the Future Relationship
More than anything else — because actions speak so much louder than words — if the UK and the EU sign a decent Withdrawal Agreement by March 29, 2019 it will guarantee world-class future relations between the two countries.
And the reward for that is quite obvious; Peace and prosperity for the people of the UK and the EU for the rest of the 21st-century.
When it comes right down to it; Is there anything more valuable in the geopolitical world?
If you think there is, then you haven’t been on the planet long enough. Therefore, stick around young sprite. You’ve plenty to learn.
Why Would British MP’s Approve an Incomplete Withdrawal Agreement?
The UK’s draft Withdrawal Agreement is a fine agreement except that it lacks in one key area; The so-called ‘backstop’ portion of the agreement which has no end-date. It’s a major flaw in the draft and it must be removed.
The backstop means that if the UK and the EU don’t reach a free trade deal in 2019 the UK will be stuck in the EU Customs Union forever, and will never be able to negotiate its own trade deals. And the opportunity to take back control of the UK’s trading relationships was one of four main reasons that Britons voted to Leave the European Union.
Remember the four metrics of Brexit success?
- Take back control of the UK’s borders and immigration
- Take back control of the UK legal system
- Take back control of the UK economy
- Take back control of UK trade
In the so-called ‘Political Declaration’ between the two parties there is reference to the backstop which states that it’s expected a free trade agreement will eventually be worked out between the two sides — neatly solving the problem of the backstop clause.
But as they’ve had 2 1/2 years to work these issues out and still haven’t (not even close) it doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence and voters on both sides of the English Channel are entitled to better service from their politicians than that. CEO’s must be wondering, too. Much of the EU’s trade is with the UK and 2 1/2 years later, no free trade agreement is in sight even though the UK is leaving the European Union on March 29, 2019. Very disappointing.
And Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk’s replacements can choose to be bound by, or not be bound by the non binding Political Declaration as both of those EU leaders step down after May 26, 2019 to make room for newly appointed EC and EU Presidents. We don’t know who those new leaders will be, nor do we know how they view the draft Withdrawal Agreement, nor do we know if they’ll give two hoots about what the non legally binding Political Declaration says. (If I were them, I wouldn’t either!)
How to Fix It
If the draft Withdrawal Agreement fails to pass in the House of Commons tomorrow (as expected) Britons can breathe a sigh of relief because almost certainly the backstop clause will be removed in time to get an amended Withdrawal Agreement passed in the House of Commons before Brexit day on March 29, 2019.
And one reason we can count on that is the EU operates a stunning £95 billion trade surplus with the UK (£67 billion net) and without a free trade agreement, businesses on both sides will suffer greatly. When there’s £95 billion on the line you can bet CEO’s will pressure their respective governments and a trade deal will happen quickly! Or heads will roll.
For goodness sake, it’s a trade agreement between two nations that have traded with each other for centuries! It’s not like the Klingons and the Romulans opening trade relations! How hard can it be?
The way to fix this situation is for British MP’s to vote down the draft Withdrawal Agreement tomorrow and encourage CEO’s on both sides of the Channel to put significant pressure on Theresa May, Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk until they get their jobs done properly which is what they should’ve been doing all along.
Doing their jobs properly — even if it’s already a year late and counting — means removing the backstop completely, or inserting a firm end date for Customs Union membership and getting a free trade deal done by July 1, 2019.
Any level of success lower than that should be considered unacceptable by citizens, by European industry, and by any country that trades with the UK or the EU.
Letter to Britain 