Home » Brexit » This Week in Brexit: Trump Promises a Trade Deal

This Week in Brexit: Trump Promises a Trade Deal

by John Brian Shannon

On the sidelines of the G20 Hamburg summit, U.S. President Trump found time to meet with UK Prime Minister May and to offer welcome words that the United States will sign a bilateral trade deal with the UK as soon as Brexit is complete.

It’s very good news for the UK and also for PM Theresa May (who has had a rough time in domestic politics of late) and it was obvious that the U.S. president went out of his way to assure Ms. May that a reciprocal trade agreement — one that works for both America and for Britain — is one of his administration priorities.

So much of the UK’s post-Brexit success will hinge on bilateral trade accords because no matter how good the final Brexit agreement, there will be some amount of economic adjustment for Britain in the months following Brexit. A quick trade agreement with the United States will not only ease the Brexit transition, but also  improve the UK (and America’s) economy indefinitely.

It was a classy thing for Mr. Trump to do for Theresa May knowing that her domestic political fortunes have taken a hit. Let’s hope the Prime Minister is able to return the favour at some point during the Trump administration. That sort of respect makes for strong allies.

During WWI, but especially during WWII the relationship between America and Britain was raised to a very high level by Prime Minister Winston Churchill and President Harry S. Truman, and in the postwar era during a time of unprecedented economic growth, President Ike Eisenhower continued the wise course set by his predecessor.

However, it could’ve so easily gone the other way if the leaders hadn’t gotten along.

Both sides would’ve missed geopolitical opportunities of huge importance such as the formation of NATO, the establishment of the Nuremberg trials and the creation of other institutions and agreements such as Bretton Woods and the IMF. Without the ambition of the UK and the power of the United States those things simply wouldn’t have occurred.

Millions of Americans and Britons prospered over the past 72 years because their postwar political leaders *didn’t drop the ball* and made a conscious decision to *make the best of the postwar relationship* for their respective people.


What Kind of Free Trade Agreement Should Prime Minister May and President Trump pursue?

Present-day Prime Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau was still in school when Canada first approached the European Union to ask about a bilateral trade deal, and that many years later it still hasn’t come into effect. (It’s about to, they say)

It will have taken eight years to hammer out and begin to abide by, the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) which arrives so late in the game and market conditions do change over time (remember way back to the 2008/09 financial crisis when the CETA agreement was first floated?) that some of the hard-won negotiating points are no longer relevant and may never be finalized.

Canada, EU to provisionally apply CETA in September (CBC)

I’m sure it’s a fine agreement and congratulations are due. However, with America and Britain at the controls of a mutually beneficial trade agreement between two friendly Anglophone nations, it should take less than a year from first discussion to signed agreement.

Though we don’t know what shape an Anglo-American trade agreement might look like from our vantage point in July of 2017, probably the best idea would be for both sides to embrace reciprocity and fair dealing in all trade matters as a way to enhance both economies, and as a way to later attract other Anglophone nations such as Canada, Australia and New Zealand to sign on to such an agreement.

Hitting the Right Note with Commonwealth of Nations member India

What a great thing it would be if all Commonwealth nations eventually agreed to sign on to a U.S. / UK trade agreement. Commonwealth of Nations member India has 1.5 billion consumers alone!

Both America and Britain could add 5% to their respective GDP just on the improved trade flows of doing business in the booming Indian economy.

“Although India’s rapid population growth is part of what accounts for the forecasted jump […] that is only part of the story. Drastic improvement in terms of per-person productivity due to capital investments and better technology will play an even more important role.

“PwC predicts that India’s economy will grow by about 4.9% per year from 2016 to 2050, with only 0.7% of that growth caused by population growth.

“India’s economy is currently the third-largest in the world, and is expanding at an estimated annual growth rate of 7.1% for the 2016-17 financial year. —  India’s economy is forecast to surpass that of the US by 2040 (Quartz)

Both America and Britain just need to hit the right note with India — a respectful note — in order to profit from the massive growth that is available in that burgeoning country.

Working out an Anglo-American trade agreement with a view to adding all Commonwealth member nations within 24 months, guarantees that other powerful trade blocs don’t beat the Anglo-American alliance to supply the rocketing Indian economy with much-needed goods and services.

Projected growth for selected countries – As measured by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)

Projected GDP growth UK 2016-2050 PwC

Projected GDP growth UK and other countries 2016-2050. Image courtesy of Quartz.com


It’s so obvious but still worth repeating; ‘Hitch your wagon to the fastest horses if you want to place well in the race.’

Britain has the Commonwealth of Nations connections, Britain needs a trade agreement with NATO ally America and with Commonwealth partner India, and the United States wants to increase mutually beneficial trade with Britain and its 2-billion-strong Commonwealth partners.

In all of human history, rarely has such a synergistic match-up suddenly appeared where different but extremely valuable benefits are available to all three parties.

Just as nobody predicted the massive Japanese economic boom which began to form the day after WWII ended, an Anglo-American trade agreement, followed by a Commonwealth trade agreement (before other trade blocs grab the low-hanging fruit!) could match or exceed the massive performance statistics of the postwar Japanese economy.

Dear United States and Commonwealth of Nations, Let’s not miss this rather obvious ‘Win-Win-Win’ opportunity!


14 Comments

  1. […] Reposted at UKNewsPosts.wordpress.com […]

  2. […] Reposted at EuropeanBiz.wordpress.com […]

  3. Very good article – I agree about the Commonwealth but am also looking at firming up relations with small and micro chinese entrepreneurs as I agree we need to connect with a Powerhouse. I co host something called London Bridge Small Business Group and there is an event on Wednesday at 6.30pm in London. If you’d like details please let me have your email address.
    A rag trader once met me for lunch – he was wearing a enamelled badge with “YDGBSOYA” on it : at the end of the meal I asked him what it stood for – He replied “You don’t get business sitting on your A***”. I have followed that mantra ever since and think that UK plc has to do the same to compete post Brexit.

    Check out my blog site when you have time – http://www.tonyhoughtonlaw.co.uk

    Regards

    Tony

    • Hi Tony,

      Thanks for the invite, but I’m in Vancouver so I won’t be able to attend.

      Great anecdote! And isn’t it the truth!

      As always, thanks for your great comments!

      Cheers! LetterToBritain

  4. Tim Walker says:

    It had occurred to me that the UK/US discussion started last year, with British officials contacting the U.S. Gov’t in the aftermath of the Brexit vote.

    • Hi Tim!

      It was nice to see President Trump affirm that a trade deal with the UK is important to his administration and to publicly allow it to be known at a critical time for PM Theresa May’s political fortunes. (Nice touch by Trump)

      Still, Theresa May would be very remiss if she didn’t follow-up on that affirmation at regular intervals over the coming months.

      And as you’ve rightly pointed out, an Anglo-American free trade agreement was first proposed by former UK Prime Minister David Cameron.

      Best regards, JBS

  5. kleef&co says:

    […] Reposted at kleef.asia […]

  6. Tim Walker says:

    I predict that the UK will establish trade agreements relatively quickly with the Anglosphere countries: Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the USA. Basically the first batch, the UK’s BFF (Best Friends Forever) allies. These are the countries that would most likely be willing to fast track trade talks.

    BTW, I can imagine the Republic of Ireland joining such a trade network, if the Irish were to vote for Irexit.

    Other EU countries, however, would not be assured such a trade network if they left the EU.

    • Hi Tim,

      I hope you’re right! Brexit should be a time of unprecedented economic activity, leading to constantly improving growth for all Anglosphere nations.

      Your idea that the Irish could join such a trade zone makes perfect sense to me; I’d suggest taking it further by inviting Norway, Iceland and Greenland to the party — and not in a punitive way to the EU, but rather, as a way to shore-up relations with North Atlantic-based nations.

      Those nations will say; “It’s nice to feel wanted and needed.” while Britain and the UK will say; “We need their participation to ensure security in the North Atlantic, and the main factor that contributes to security are strong North Atlantic economies.”

      Grateful as always to receive your comments here at Letter to Britain!

      Cheers! JBS

  7. Tim Walker says:

    BTW, awhile back I came across mention of a similar scenario-in the UK back in the ’70s there was the concept of a UK/Canada/USA trade grouping. What immediately comes to mind is adding Australia and New Zealand to the group.

    • Hi Tim,

      Yes, for certain! And the positive response of both governments in recent months to such an idea is heartwarming.

      For decades, La Francophonie has held summits for all of its members, and during all that time, there has never been an Anglosphere meeting to discuss opportunities and to solve problems unique to the Anglosphere nations.

      Some things could be done immediately to facilitate trade and tourism between CANZUK/USA nations, all it would take is an Anglophone summit meeting.

      For me, it’s a ‘must-do’ and it must be done ASAP — even before Brexit completes.

      Best regards, JBS

  8. Tim Walker says:

    One observer has suggested membership in both EFTA and NAFTA

    “The Future of UK’s trade relations: NAFTA, the EU customs union or simply a bilateral agreement”. http://www.cps.org.uk>Blog>2016>November

    I have also notice suggestions that the UK enter into an “associate” agreement with EFTA, something similar to the arrangement that Finland once had with EFTA.

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