As far back as the early 1980’s the ‘Donbas region’ of Ukraine was a hotbed of separatist sentiment and was mostly ignored by the former Soviet Union although it was occasionally useful for Moscow to support the separatists to better control successive independent-leaning Ukrainian governments.
Over decades of time, this situation evolved so that whenever Luhansk or Donetsk separatists pushed their agenda in Ukraine too far, Ukrainian governments simply called Moscow to assist by delivering a military-style thrashing to the Donbas separatists, effectively ending further protests, demonstrations, or separatist leaders speaking on either Ukrainian TV or Donbas television or radio stations (and sometimes, illegal Donbas radio stations).
It was such a small matter that Western policymakers criticised Soviet actions in the Donbas region less than once per decade. Nobody cared because eastern Ukraine was one of the least important places on planet Earth from 1945-onward.
MAJOR AIRLINE CORRIDOR PASSES RIGHT OVER DONBAS REGION:
In the 1990’s, the airspace above Ukraine suddenly became useful for transcontinental airlines which were able to shave hundreds of miles from their route when travelling from Europe to the burgeoning Middle East, India, anywhere along the refurbished Silk Road route (China’s One Belt-One Road route, first proposed by former President of China Hu Jintao in 1999) and Australia.
This huge surge of tourism created virtual traffic jams in the skies over eastern Ukraine — home of the Donbas separatists.
Airlines saved millions of dollars of fuel per year by taking the Ukrainian route to and from the Middle East, India and Western Australia. But the separatists were wary of such overflights. In fact, there were a number of aircraft shootdowns in the skies over Donbas since 1998, although the separatists were never directly implicated in these incidents.
NOTE: Since the Russian Army commenced hostilities with a view to complete occupation of the Donbas region on February 24, 2022, the world’s airlines have taken care to stay away from Ukraine as you might expect.
WHAT DOES EVERYONE WANT?
Russian president Vladimir Putin just didn’t wake up one day and suddenly decide to attack eastern Ukraine.
It seems that the Russians have become uncomfortable with a separatist region located near their southern underbelly. Several strategic Russian cities and military bases (including Russia’s largest and most secret nuclear airbase) are located within 600-miles from Luhansk, Ukraine = less than 30-minutes flight time for a western fighter jet.
You can be assured that more than any other security issue Russian generals face, it’s that nightmare that keeps them awake at night.
With increasing talk of Ukraine joining the EU and NATO, and the broken promise by Western countries to not invite the Baltic republics to join NATO (at the end of the Cold War in 1990, Western politicians agreed with Russia that Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania wouldn’t join NATO for 50-years) it looks like the Russian president decided that the West intended to again act in bad faith.
Op-Ed: Russia’s got a point: The U.S. broke a NATO promise (LA Times)
The EU leadership doesn’t want all of Ukraine:
1: Ukraine has always been an economic black hole — as far back as Peter the Great — and every year since, the country has been a drain on Russian and later, Soviet finances. Even since Ukraine won their independence from the former Soviet Union in 1991 it can barely afford to exist. It’s a ruggedly beautiful and harsh land, populated with durable people who somehow manage to grow millions of tons of hardy wheat, barley, and sunflowers every year. But not as profitably as the United States or Canada.
2: For it’s part, the EU doesn’t want to inherit a troubled eastern Ukraine that borders Russia’s most strategic region. If the EU were to attempt to solve the problem of the Ukrainian breakaway republics it would carry huge geostrategic implications for the EU-Russia relationship. And the EU would find themselves at a distinct disadvantage should the Ukrainian separatist republics call Moscow for military assistance. Never in history would a major power have willingly walked into such an obvious and well-laid trap. No way at all for the EU to win, even if the American military were to offer significant help.
Which is why the EU seems to be passively watching the convulsions in the Donbas while trying to provide maximum humanitarian assistance to those fleeing the conflict zone.
Eventually, Russia will fully occupy and control the Donbas region and those republics will simply and quietly become part of Russia and the remainder of Ukraine will join the EU.
And because the strategic eastern portions of Ukraine would by then belong to Russia, any future Russian president would see little remaining threat to whatever happens to be left of Ukraine, joining NATO.
The US and Canada don’t want to get involved in another shooting war in Europe:
Neither country wants a war with Russia, especially over two breakaway republics in eastern Ukraine, nor will they offer anything more than moral support to Ukraine, to the EU, or to NATO, combined with humanitarian support for the millions of Ukrainian refugees.
Let’s hope that North America’s greatest contribution will come in the form of humanitarian assistance by accepting Ukrainian refugees into their countries with easy entry requirements.
Other than the fact that eastern Ukraine was a useful flyover route for European and Middle Eastern airlines, there’s nothing in Ukraine of any real value to US or Canadian investors — no oil, no natural gas, no mining. It’s mountainous, swampy, brutally cold in winter, and the land there is only useful to those willing to engage in subsistence farming or timber production.
Why Donbas is at the heart of the Ukraine crisis (CNN)
Vlad Putin wants the Donbas region; The EU wants the rest of Ukraine to join the EU; And North America is playing along:
The only factors then are time (because, given enough time these three goals will reach a point of convergence) and the unfolding humanitarian disaster.
Russia, the European Union, and North America need to dramatically ramp-up their response to those negatively affected by Russia’s military action in eastern Ukraine.
Each of these blocs must immediately begin to offer expedited travel and immigration arrangements to a people that are simply and profoundly victims of geography and circumstance. They’ve done nothing to deserve what’s happening to them and it’s up to Western countries do the right thing.
And so far, the response by these three blocs has been underwhelming.
Ukrainian refugees fleeing a war they didn’t start or want, deserve a Western response orders of magnitude better than they’ve experienced to date.
Written by John Brian Shannon
From what I can tell-from looking at YouTube videos-Canada and the United States are just starting to gear up for Ukrainian refugees.
Ireland has already received a substantial number of refugees. Local families are hosting refugees in their homes. Some Ukrainian children have already started school in Ireland.
(BTW, there now seems to be talk of Ireland joining NATO).
Great to see Ireland is ahead of the curve in regards to accepting and caring for Ukrainian refugees.
The UK, US, and Canada need to and have the capacity to take many tens of thousands of refugees.
Thank you for the information on Ireland’s success!
Hello, John. YouTube videos indicate that the UK is preparing to accept refugees. Refugees will be staying with host families.
While investigating this topic on YouTube, a story appeared on the right side of my screen-Covid isn’t done with us.
We are in the midst of a dual crisis, a Covid/Ukraine crisis.
John, if you are interested in the geopolitics of the invasion, google “CaspianReport, Why Russia wants to restore the Soviet borders.”
Thank you, Tim!
At this point I think it won”t be so much a matter of fixing the country as rebuilding it. As in rebuilding entire cities.
Problems I see:
Farmers trying to plant crops in a war zone. Will Ukraine see famine?
Health care in a war zone. Not only those injured in the fighting, but disruption of efforts to counter Covid.
I agree with you.
These are all valid concerns in the best case scenario. I don’t even want to think what the worst case scenario might be.
I do believe that it was necessary to remove the criminal separatist groups that have been terrorizing eastern Ukrainians for decades, not to mention shooting down of a civilian airliner and taking potshots at many others.
It’s too bad that the Ukrainian Army couldn’t get the job done.
It’s not like those groups arose just recently, they’ve been operating in Donbas since the late 1970’s.
I draw a direct causality line between the Ukrainian Army’s failure and the Russian invasion of February 24, 2022.
Best regards, JBS
I cannot confirm this….there is a rumor online that Moldova is Putin’s next target.
YouTube videos indicate that a number of European countries are hosting Ukrainian refugees.
Starting to see YouTube videos about refugees in Canada.
Peter Zeihan has reported that Russian forces are wrecking agriculture in Ukraine. He expects famine there….I expect a huge new wave of refugees. Also, food shortages where Ukrainian food used to be exported to.
Had a problem trying to post a link…about Ukrainian refugees in Tijuana, Mexico, waiting to enter the United States.
I am starting to see references to Russians seeking asylum, because they are opposed to Putin.
It seems that NATO troops are participating in war games in Finland. See the YouTube video “UK troops exercise with Finnish allies and Russian threats.”
Another related YouTube video-“Nuclear threat against Ireland.”
For a discussion of Russian geopolitics, see the YouTube video “Glimpse of the Future with Peter Zeihan-Strategist, Thinker, Futurist, Speaker.” About 7:10 in Zeihan shows the places that Putin must seize to secure Russia’s borders. These have been corridors for invasion in the past. Note that that includes territory in multiple NATO countries.
Thank you, Tim.
I will check it out this weekend.
Best regards, JBS
Hello. You might be interested in a YouTube video-“Geopolitics: A Virtually Speaking talk by Tim Marshall.’
Tim Marshall points out the potential for conflict between two NATO members, Greece and Turkey.
John, you may want to check out a YouTube video by General Dit Commando. He reviews different scenarios presented in “This is How Russia’s War in Ukraine Will End.”
One mistake-Slovakia is not one of the Baltic states. The Baltic States are Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.
Thank you for this information, Tim!
You are welcome, John.
Another video on YouTube, by Infographics-“What Will Ukraine Do After The War With Russia.” Several different scenarios.
Of course it is hard to predict. For Europe, we have to go back to World War II to see upheaval on a comparable scale. And early in that war who could have predicted the outcome at the end of the war.
But… Brexit may have pre-adapted the UK for the years ahead. Some years back I came across a book which discussed the (then theoretical) collapse of the global system of trade. As I recall, there was a list of steps that a government would likely follow:
Government officials realize that the global system of trade is collapsing.
The government decides that it will do whatever is necessary to secure their country’s well being.
That government decides to abandon rules that impede step 2. (Think WTO rules).
Diplomats seek bilateral deals with which ever countries have what is sought, such as fossil fuels, food, minerals. etc.
I was reminded of this when the UK began to scramble for trade deals shortly after the Brexit referendum. So the UK already has a bit of practice with this.
The Ukraine war is leading to shortages of fossil fuels, as well as famine in parts of the world. During a global pandemic.
BTW, there is one country that I believe would also abandon EU rules-France.
Yes, as Winston Churchill observed, “Countries don’t have friends, they have interests.”
If things unravel, I think we’ll begin to see what that really means…
I saw UN Sec Gen Antonio Guiterez on the news today announcing that Turkey had brokered a deal between Russia and Ukraine to ship millions of tonnes of grain and sunflower seeds from the Ukranian port city of Odessa.
Maybe the world isn’t irredeemably broken, yet?
Thanks for your great comments and info, Tim!
You are welcome, John.
Jeff Taylor does Brexit videos on YouTube. This isn’t directly related to Ukraine, but his video “Here To Help!” discusses the UK and energy supplies.
All through the Brexit timeline I watched Jeff Taylor’s videos and I thought he was right on target.
I’ve featured one or more of his videos in my LetterToBritain blogs and am pleased to find out he’s done a vlog on the Ukraine situation.
At some point, he stopped posting (COVID)
Thank you for this valuable information!
John, I have occasionally looked at the Westmonster on YouTube, Michael Heavers Brexit series.
I often watch reaction videos on YouTube. The most popular theme seems to be reactions to snacks imported from various countries. There are also reactions to material with military themes. Two I look at are General Dit Commando, and Bootneck Media (formerly Bootneck Gamer; I believe both gentlemen have backgrounds as soldiers, and they have been reviewing material relevant to the present crisis.
General Dit Commando reviewing material (“Russian Shelling in Ukraine has Decreased!”). The video showed Ukrainian soldiers in trench. Yes, trench warfare has come to Ukraine. Also, noticed the reference to the “Eastern Front.”
This war is starting to remind me of the first world war.
Thank you again for your interesting contributions.
Please see my latest blog post at lettertobritain.com at: https://lettertobritain.com/2022/08/04/geopolitics/
Would love to hear your thoughts on this!
Best regards, JBS
One of the features of the Spanish Civil War was volunteers, soldiers from other countries.
I have been aware of volunteers from UK, US….
Noticed something on YouTube…Japanese volunteers. The idea is that men who had been members of the Japanese military will go to Ukraine to fight Russian forces.
Also, that North Korea may send troops to Ukraine to join the other side.
Of course, I can’t help speculating about Japanese fighting Koreans in Ukraine.
Curiouser and curiouser.
Both world wars began from a number of disparate factors that were almost unrelated.
It makes me wonder if today’s politicians are just not seeing a number of seemingly unrelated factors converging at a certain time and place.
In my humble view, leaders should tread very carefully from today forward, as the seeds of another European-inspired world war are already down.
And it wouldn’t take much to ignite a full-scale world war, now that we’ve travelled this far, and both sides are increasingly entrenched in their respective thinking.
Thanks for your kind comments, Tim!